Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (56%). 4 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Trail Blazers vs. Jazz: O/U 234.5

4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Over (67%) · Over at 45¢ · $14K held · ends Oct 31

Over45¢Under55¢Ends Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 67%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$13.6K

Combined PnL

$13.75

Smart Money Entry

44¢ → 44.5¢

+1% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 45%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

4 of 6 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Under 56%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over45%

Under56%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over4 traders

Total Value$1.4K

Total Shares3,205

Combined PnL+$12.25

Under2 traders

Total Value$167.12

Total Shares299

Combined PnL+$1.5

Over — 67%Under — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Over 60% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Underavg 54.5¢	$11.9K	$12.1K	+$363.15	54% 17179-14402 (31581)
└ Under leg	Underavg 54.5¢	$7.8K	$7.9K	+$140.5
└ Over leg	Overavg 44.1¢	$4.1K	$4.1K	+$222.66
TO tomb2456CTR	Overavg 44¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	+$15	50% 292-288 (580)
RollAwayTheDew	Underavg 55¢	$144.1	$146.72	+$1.31	53% 403-355 (758)
NA NatoAlfistaCTR<$100	Overavg 45¢	$68.76	$65.7	-$3.06	50% 3872-3828 (7700)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Overavg 44¢	$20.68	$20.92	+$0.23	58% 28707-21186 (49893)
GH ghorrock<$100	Underavg 55¢	$20.21	$20.4	+$0.19	57% 13809-10582 (24391)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Overavg 43¢	$2.15	$2.22	+$0.07	48% 2396-2627 (5023)

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Under

Invested

$11,871.38

Value

$12.1K

PnL

+$363.15

Record

54%

17179-14402 (31581)

Both legs:

Under$7,805.2654.5¢+$140.5

Over$4,066.1344.1¢+$222.66

tomb2456CTR

Over

Invested

$1,320

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$15

Record

50%

292-288 (580)

RollAwayTheDew

Under

Invested

$144.1

Value

$146.72

PnL

+$1.31

Record

53%

403-355 (758)

NatoAlfistaCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$68.76

Value

$65.7

PnL

-$3.06

Record

50%

3872-3828 (7700)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$20.68

Value

$20.92

PnL

+$0.23

Record

58%

28707-21186 (49893)

ghorrock<$100

Under

Invested

$20.21

Value

$20.4

PnL

+$0.19

Record

57%

13809-10582 (24391)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$2.15

Value

$2.22

PnL

+$0.07

Record

48%

2396-2627 (5023)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 45%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Over

4 of 6 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Under 56%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Over 60% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance46.7%

44.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$113.95

Max Loss

-$100.00

214.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.