Trail Blazers vs. Jazz: O/U 233.5

4 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Under (31%) · Under at 54¢ · $71K held · ends Oct 31

Over47¢Under53¢Ends Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 31%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$71.5K

Combined PnL

$222.55

Smart Money Entry

52.4¢ → 53.5¢

+2% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 54%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 13 top traders (31%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over47%

Under54%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under4 traders

Total Value$33.7K

Total Shares63,001

Combined PnL+$660.56

Over9 traders

Total Value$13.5K

Total Shares28,471

Combined PnL-$438.01

Under — 31%Over — 69%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrOver 75% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Under 50% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GM gmpm2	Underavg 52.5¢	$32.4K	$33.1K	+$648.18	53% 337-299 (636)
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Overavg 47.1¢	$23.6K	$23.9K	+$316.99	54% 17179-14402 (31581)
└ Under leg	Underavg 51.4¢	$11.5K	$12.0K	+$461.74
└ Over leg	Overavg 47.1¢	$12.0K	$11.9K	-$144.75
CH chongchong37CTR	Overavg 49¢	$7.3K	$7.0K	-$375	54% 110-94 (204)
FF ff3364CTR	Overavg 48¢	$1.8K	$1.8K	-$57.64	50% 800-803 (1603)
HE HerdoniaCTR	Overavg 47.1¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	-$2.28	54% 3357-2905 (6262)
AY ay118CTR	Overavg 48¢	$960	$930	-$30	51% 25-24 (49)
TO tomb2456CTR	Overavg 46¢	$920	$930	+$10	50% 292-288 (580)
HI hi774cCTR	Overavg 46¢	$867.79	$877.22	+$9.43	52% 4731-4452 (9183)
RollAwayTheDew	Underavg 52.6¢	$566.02	$575.47	+$9.46	53% 403-355 (758)
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR	Overavg 46¢	$460	$465	+$5	53% 5632-4972 (10604)
RN1ARB<$100	Underavg 51¢	$380.4	$394.66	+$14.26	54% 56611-48781 (105392)
└ Under leg	Underavg 51¢	$265.4	$278.41	+$13.01
└ Over leg	Overavg 46¢	$115	$116.25	+$1.25
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Overavg 47¢	$52.14	$51.6	-$0.54	58% 28707-21186 (49893)
NA NatoAlfistaCTR<$100	Overavg 46¢	$46.46	$49.49	+$3.03	50% 3872-3828 (7700)
RL RLWG<$100	Underavg 51.2¢	$25.6	$26.75	+$1.15	50% 7902-7934 (15836)
GH ghorrock<$100	Underavg 50.7¢	$47.1	$26.71	+$1.77	57% 13809-10582 (24391)

gmpm2

Under

Invested

$32,436.4

Value

$33.1K

PnL

+$648.18

Record

53%

337-299 (636)

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Over

Invested

$23,579.68

Value

$23.9K

PnL

+$316.99

Record

54%

17179-14402 (31581)

Both legs:

Under$11,542.7951.4¢+$461.74

Over$12,036.8947.1¢-$144.75

chongchong37CTR

Over

Invested

$7,349.99

Value

$7.0K

PnL

-$375

Record

54%

110-94 (204)

ff3364CTR

Over

Invested

$1,844.64

Value

$1.8K

PnL

-$57.64

Record

50%

800-803 (1603)

HerdoniaCTR

Over

Invested

$1,427.62

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$2.28

Record

54%

3357-2905 (6262)

ay118CTR

Over

Invested

$960

Value

$930

PnL

-$30

Record

51%

25-24 (49)

tomb2456CTR

Over

Invested

$920

Value

$930

PnL

+$10

Record

50%

292-288 (580)

hi774cCTR

Over

Invested

$867.79

Value

$877.22

PnL

+$9.43

Record

52%

4731-4452 (9183)

RollAwayTheDew

Under

Invested

$566.02

Value

$575.47

PnL

+$9.46

Record

53%

403-355 (758)

0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR

Over

Invested

$460

Value

$465

PnL

+$5

Record

53%

5632-4972 (10604)

RN1ARB<$100

Under

Invested

$380.4

Value

$394.66

PnL

+$14.26

Record

54%

56611-48781 (105392)

Both legs:

Under$265.451¢+$13.01

Over$11546¢+$1.25

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$52.14

Value

$51.6

PnL

-$0.54

Record

58%

28707-21186 (49893)

NatoAlfistaCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$46.46

Value

$49.49

PnL

+$3.03

Record

50%

3872-3828 (7700)

RLWG<$100

Under

Invested

$25.6

Value

$26.75

PnL

+$1.15

Record

50%

7902-7934 (15836)

ghorrock<$100

Under

Invested

$47.1

Value

$26.71

PnL

+$1.77

Record

57%

13809-10582 (24391)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 54%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 13 top traders (31%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrOver 75% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Under 50% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance55.7%

53.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$79.40

Max Loss

-$100.00

179.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.