Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (52%). 4 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Trail Blazers vs. Jazz: O/U 232.5
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Over (80%) · Over at 49¢ · $682 held · ends Oct 31
⚠️
Avoid
Over
5
Over 80%
$681.77
$0.11
48¢ → 48.5¢
+1% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidOver at 49%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors Under 52%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Cooling
-3 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 92%
Freshness
Fresh
2h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR | Overavg 48¢ | $480 | $480 | +$0 | 53% 5631-4970 (10601) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Overavg 47.9¢ | $139.84 | $140.26 | +$0.42 | 58% 41902-30424 (72326) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Overavg 48.9¢ | $51.82 | $51.41 | -$0.41 | 58% 28689-21179 (49868) |
HE Herdonia<$100 | Underavg 51¢ | $5.2 | $5.26 | +$0.05 | 54% 3357-2905 (6262) |
 0xheavy888CTR<$100 | Overavg 48¢ | $4.8 | $4.85 | +$0.05 | 55% 7124-5713 (12837) |
Invested
$480
Value
$480
PnL
+$0
Record
53%
5631-4970 (10601)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$139.84
Value
$140.26
PnL
+$0.42
Record
58%
41902-30424 (72326)
Invested
$51.82
Value
$51.41
PnL
-$0.41
Record
58%
28689-21179 (49868)
Invested
$5.2
Value
$5.26
PnL
+$0.05
Record
54%
3357-2905 (6262)
0xheavy888CTR<$100Invested
$4.8
Value
$4.85
PnL
+$0.05
Record
55%
7124-5713 (12837)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
48.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.