Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (52%). 2 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Trail Blazers vs. Jazz: O/U 231.5
2 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Under (33%) · Under at 49¢ · $10K held · ends Oct 31
⚠️
Avoid
Under
6
Under 33%
1 arb excluded
$9.8K
$96.33
47.7¢ → 48.5¢
+2% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
AvoidUnder at 49%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 6 top traders (33%)Underdog side (market favors Over 52%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
33% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazardCTR | Underavg 47.7¢ | $6.4K | $6.5K | +$104.08 | 54% 17179-14402 (31581) |
AY ay118 | Overavg 51.6¢ | $2.7K | $2.7K | -$3.43 | 51% 25-24 (49) |
 RN1 | Overavg 52.5¢ | $263.54 | $258.55 | -$4.99 | 54% 56611-48781 (105392) |
NA NatoAlfista | Overavg 51¢ | $122.4 | $122.4 | +$0 | 50% 3872-3828 (7700) |
LE LeLynxMalynxARB<$100 | Overavg 51.4¢ | $92.94 | $93.63 | +$0.68 | 58% 28707-21186 (49893) |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 51.4¢ | $66.39 | $66.47 | +$0.07 | |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 47.4¢ | $26.55 | $27.16 | +$0.61 | |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Underavg 47.6¢ | $36.46 | $34.71 | +$0.6 | 57% 13809-10582 (24391) |
AM ameisgoat11<$100 | Overavg 50¢ | $2.5 | $2.58 | +$0.08 | 48% 2396-2627 (5023) |
Invested
$6,416.02
Value
$6.5K
PnL
+$104.08
Record
54%
17179-14402 (31581)
Invested
$2,740.64
Value
$2.7K
PnL
-$3.43
Record
51%
25-24 (49)
RN1Invested
$263.54
Value
$258.55
PnL
-$4.99
Record
54%
56611-48781 (105392)
Invested
$122.4
Value
$122.4
PnL
+$0
Record
50%
3872-3828 (7700)
Invested
$92.94
Value
$93.63
PnL
+$0.68
Record
58%
28707-21186 (49893)
Both legs:
Invested
$36.46
Value
$34.71
PnL
+$0.6
Record
57%
13809-10582 (24391)
Invested
$2.5
Value
$2.58
PnL
+$0.08
Record
48%
2396-2627 (5023)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
48.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.