Trail Blazers vs. Jazz: O/U 230.5
6 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Over (86%) · Over at 53¢ · $8K held · ends Oct 31
⚠️
Avoid
Over
7
Over 86%
$7.8K
$141.2
53¢ → 53¢
+0% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
AvoidOver at 53%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 7 top traders (86%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 95%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
86% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazard | Overavg 53¢ | $4.9K | $4.9K | +$138.71 | 54% 17179-14402 (31581) |
BA Bayupati | Overavg 53¢ | $2.5K | $2.5K | +$0 | 51% 226-220 (446) |
 VeryLucky888 | Overavg 52.5¢ | $262.5 | $265 | +$2.5 | 58% 41929-30449 (72378) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Overavg 52.7¢ | $59.86 | $60.16 | +$0.19 | 58% 28707-21186 (49893) |
NA NatoAlfista<$100 | Overavg 54¢ | $32.13 | $31.54 | -$0.6 | 50% 3872-3828 (7700) |
 0xheavy888<$100 | Overavg 53¢ | $5.3 | $5.45 | +$0.15 | 55% 7125-5714 (12839) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Underavg 46¢ | $11.21 | $3.4 | +$0.24 | 57% 13809-10582 (24391) |
Invested
$4,901
Value
$4.9K
PnL
+$138.71
Record
54%
17179-14402 (31581)
Invested
$2,491.5
Value
$2.5K
PnL
+$0
Record
51%
226-220 (446)
VeryLucky888Invested
$262.5
Value
$265
PnL
+$2.5
Record
58%
41929-30449 (72378)
Invested
$59.86
Value
$60.16
PnL
+$0.19
Record
58%
28707-21186 (49893)
Invested
$32.13
Value
$31.54
PnL
-$0.6
Record
50%
3872-3828 (7700)
0xheavy888<$100Invested
$5.3
Value
$5.45
PnL
+$0.15
Record
55%
7125-5714 (12839)
Invested
$11.21
Value
$3.4
PnL
+$0.24
Record
57%
13809-10582 (24391)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
53.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.