Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (71%). 3 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Trail Blazers vs. Jazz: O/U 228.5

3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Over (50%) · Over at 30¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 31

Over30¢Under70¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 50%

Total Value

$1.6K

Combined PnL

$372.25

Smart Money Entry

47.4¢ → 29.5¢

-38% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 30%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

3 of 6 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Under 71%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over30%

Under71%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over3 traders

Total Value$1.4K

Total Shares1,948

Combined PnL+$463.59

Under3 traders

Total Value$240.17

Total Shares841

Combined PnL-$91.34

Over — 50%Under — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SU SunflowaRebuildYearCTR	Overavg 46¢	$568.94	$890.51	+$321.57	47% 331-377 (708)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Overavg 52¢	$348.25	$482.19	+$133.94	48% 943-1015 (1958)
SU SunlineTicker	Underavg 39¢	$320.4	$230.15	-$90.25	62% 4161-2553 (6714)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Overavg 14.8¢	$11.6	$19.67	+$8.07	53% 4792-4312 (9104)
GH ghorrock<$100	Underavg 40¢	$9.01	$8.62	-$0.39	57% 13860-10628 (24488)
UP UpTheBlues<$100	Underavg 42¢	$2.1	$1.4	-$0.7	59% 45969-32302 (78271)

SunflowaRebuildYearCTR

Over

Invested

$568.94

Value

$890.51

PnL

+$321.57

Record

47%

331-377 (708)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Over

Invested

$348.25

Value

$482.19

PnL

+$133.94

Record

48%

943-1015 (1958)

SunlineTicker

Under

Invested

$320.4

Value

$230.15

PnL

-$90.25

Record

62%

4161-2553 (6714)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$11.6

Value

$19.67

PnL

+$8.07

Record

53%

4792-4312 (9104)

ghorrock<$100

Under

Invested

$9.01

Value

$8.62

PnL

-$0.39

Record

57%

13860-10628 (24488)

UpTheBlues<$100

Under

Invested

$2.1

Value

$1.4

PnL

-$0.7

Record

59%

45969-32302 (78271)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 30%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Over

3 of 6 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Under 71%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance31.6%

29.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$216.86

Max Loss

-$100.00

316.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.