Trail Blazers vs. Jazz: O/U 224.5
5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Under (71%) · Under at 71¢ · $4K held · ended Oct 31
⚠️
Avoid
Under
7
Under 71%
$4.0K
$-1.3K
56.1¢ → 70.5¢
+26% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
AvoidUnder at 71%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Nooserac | Underavg 56¢ | $1.8K | $2.2K | +$402.64 | 52% 5778-5367 (11145) |
TO torta.tech | Underavg 56¢ | $2.7K | $1.2K | $-1.5K | 63% 8137-4876 (13013) |
 hammyandcheese | Underavg 56¢ | $560 | $255 | -$305 | 55% 390-318 (708) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR | Overavg 49¢ | $115.15 | $175.08 | +$59.92 | 59% 45969-32302 (78271) |
0X 0xe3eeb127d5763a6e4ad597f773f9d9c94d5176<$100 | Underavg 56¢ | $100 | $45.54 | -$54.46 | 53% 6134-5384 (11518) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Underavg 76¢ | $36.29 | $33.66 | -$2.63 | 53% 4792-4312 (9104) |
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100 | Overavg 49¢ | $21.56 | $32.78 | +$11.22 | 48% 943-1015 (1958) |
NooseracInvested
$1,803.84
Value
$2.2K
PnL
+$402.64
Record
52%
5778-5367 (11145)
Invested
$2,670.64
Value
$1.2K
PnL
$-1.5K
Record
63%
8137-4876 (13013)
hammyandcheeseInvested
$560
Value
$255
PnL
-$305
Record
55%
390-318 (708)
Invested
$115.15
Value
$175.08
PnL
+$59.92
Record
59%
45969-32302 (78271)
Invested
$100
Value
$45.54
PnL
-$54.46
Record
53%
6134-5384 (11518)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$36.29
Value
$33.66
PnL
-$2.63
Record
53%
4792-4312 (9104)
Invested
$21.56
Value
$32.78
PnL
+$11.22
Record
48%
943-1015 (1958)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
70.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.