Trail Blazers vs. Jazz: O/U 222.5

4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Under (80%) · Under at 70¢ · $724 held · ended Oct 31

Over30¢Under70¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 80%

Total Value

$723.62

Combined PnL

-$507.89

Smart Money Entry

49.4¢ → 70¢

+42% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 70%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over30%

Under70%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under4 traders

Total Value$652.08

Total Shares2,397

Combined PnL-$535.33

Over1 trader

Total Value$71.54

Total Shares98

Combined PnL+$27.44

Under — 80%Over — 20%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBlues	Underavg 49.5¢	$734.74	$401.17	-$333.57	59% 45969-32302 (78271)
hammyandcheese	Underavg 49¢	$388.79	$214.23	-$174.56	55% 390-318 (708)
JU justaluckydudeCTR<$100	Overavg 45¢	$44.1	$71.54	+$27.44	53% 10788-9397 (20185)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100	Underavg 51¢	$56.93	$30.14	-$26.79	48% 943-1015 (1958)
HRTrading<$100	Underavg 75¢	$6.95	$6.54	-$0.41	53% 4792-4312 (9104)

UpTheBlues

Under

Invested

$734.74

Value

$401.17

PnL

-$333.57

Record

59%

45969-32302 (78271)

hammyandcheese

Under

Invested

$388.79

Value

$214.23

PnL

-$174.56

Record

55%

390-318 (708)

justaluckydudeCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$44.1

Value

$71.54

PnL

+$27.44

Record

53%

10788-9397 (20185)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100

Under

Invested

$56.93

Value

$30.14

PnL

-$26.79

Record

48%

943-1015 (1958)

HRTrading<$100

Under

Invested

$6.95

Value

$6.54

PnL

-$0.41

Record

53%

4792-4312 (9104)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 70%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance72.1%

70.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$38.74

Max Loss

-$100.00

138.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.