Trail Blazers vs. Jazz: O/U 216.5

3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Under (43%) · Under at 97¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 31

Over3¢Under97¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 43%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.4K

Combined PnL

-$358.49

Smart Money Entry

48¢ → 97¢

+102% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 97%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 7 top traders (43%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over3%

Under97%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under3 traders

Total Value$1.5K

Total Shares3,137

Combined PnL+$32.86

Over4 traders

Total Value$259.36

Total Shares1,881

Combined PnL-$391.36

Under — 43%Over — 57%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AW aweso	Underavg 48¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	-$30	48% 49-53 (102)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100	Overavg 39¢	$1.3K	$607.55	-$693.91	48% 943-1015 (1958)
└ Over leg	Overavg 39¢	$1.1K	$309.52	-$831.21
└ Under leg	Underavg 49.5¢	$165.76	$298.03	+$137.3
JU justaluckydudeCTR	Overavg 44.8¢	$193.87	$173.27	-$20.6	53% 10788-9397 (20185)
HRTrading	Underavg 48.1¢	$63.66	$127.07	+$63.41	53% 4792-4312 (9104)
TA takeormakeCTR	Overavg 35.4¢	$451.2	$79.09	-$372.11	53% 4137-3598 (7735)
TO torta.techCTR<$100	Overavg 54¢	$2.7	$3.5	+$0.8	63% 8137-4876 (13013)
0X 0xe3eeb127d5763a6e4ad597f773f9d9c94d5176CTR<$100	Overavg 59¢	$2.95	$3.5	+$0.55	53% 6134-5384 (11518)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100	Underavg 41¢	$2.05	$1.5	-$0.55	59% 30499-21212 (51711)

aweso

Under

Invested

$1,440

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$30

Record

48%

49-53 (102)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100

Over

Invested

$1,264.28

Value

$607.55

PnL

-$693.91

Record

48%

943-1015 (1958)

Both legs:

Over$1,098.5239¢-$831.21

Under$165.7649.5¢+$137.3

justaluckydudeCTR

Over

Invested

$193.87

Value

$173.27

PnL

-$20.6

Record

53%

10788-9397 (20185)

HRTrading

Under

Invested

$63.66

Value

$127.07

PnL

+$63.41

Record

53%

4792-4312 (9104)

takeormakeCTR

Over

Invested

$451.2

Value

$79.09

PnL

-$372.11

Record

53%

4137-3598 (7735)

torta.techCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$2.7

Value

$3.5

PnL

+$0.8

Record

63%

8137-4876 (13013)

0xe3eeb127d5763a6e4ad597f773f9d9c94d5176CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$2.95

Value

$3.5

PnL

+$0.55

Record

53%

6134-5384 (11518)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100

Under

Invested

$2.05

Value

$1.5

PnL

-$0.55

Record

59%

30499-21212 (51711)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 97%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 7 top traders (43%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance98.1%

97.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1.94

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.