Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Jazz, while the market favors Trail Blazers (70%). 3 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Spread: Trail Blazers (-9.5)

3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Jazz (43%) · Jazz at 31¢ · $3K held · ended Oct 31

Trail Blazers70¢Jazz30¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Jazz

Consensus Traders

Jazz 43%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.7K

Combined PnL

$94.5

Smart Money Entry

56.9¢ → 30.5¢

-46% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidJazz at 31%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Jazz

3 of 7 top traders (43%)Underdog side (market favors Trail Blazers 70%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Trail Blazers70%

Jazz31%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Jazz3 traders

Total Value$2.1K

Total Shares3,672

Combined PnL+$39.49

Trail Blazers4 traders

Total Value$372.71

Total Shares673

Combined PnL+$55.01

Jazz — 43%Trail Blazers — 57%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Jazz. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleTrail Blazers 100% · 1

Diverging

sharpTrail Blazers 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrTrail Blazers 60% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000Trail Blazers 67% · 6

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Jazzavg 57.3¢	$1.8K	$1.8K	+$21.99	54% 17179-14402 (31581)
TO tomb2456CTR	Jazzavg 55¢	$306.9	$323.64	+$16.74	50% 292-288 (580)
RollAwayTheDew	Trail Blazersavg 43¢	$113.43	$178.06	+$64.63	53% 404-355 (759)
JU justaluckydudeARB<$100	Trail Blazersavg 63.5¢	$169.54	$162.19	-$7.35	53% 10788-9397 (20185)
└ Trail Blazers leg	Trail Blazersavg 63.5¢	$124.46	$128.38	+$3.92
└ Jazz leg	Jazzavg 46¢	$45.08	$33.81	-$11.27
HE Herdonia	Trail Blazersavg 45.5¢	$149.27	$137.89	-$11.38	54% 3357-2905 (6262)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Trail Blazersavg 45¢	$45.16	$43.93	-$1.23	58% 28788-21225 (50013)
NA NatoAlfistaCTR<$100	Jazzavg 56¢	$21.28	$22.04	+$0.76	50% 3877-3837 (7714)
HRTrading<$100	Trail Blazersavg 39.8¢	$9.84	$12.83	+$2.99	53% 4792-4312 (9104)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Jazz

Invested

$1,766.77

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$21.99

Record

54%

17179-14402 (31581)

tomb2456CTR

Jazz

Invested

$306.9

Value

$323.64

PnL

+$16.74

Record

50%

292-288 (580)

RollAwayTheDew

Trail Blazers

Invested

$113.43

Value

$178.06

PnL

+$64.63

Record

53%

404-355 (759)

justaluckydudeARB<$100

Trail Blazers

Invested

$169.54

Value

$162.19

PnL

-$7.35

Record

53%

10788-9397 (20185)

Both legs:

Trail Blazers$124.4663.5¢+$3.92

Jazz$45.0846¢-$11.27

Herdonia

Trail Blazers

Invested

$149.27

Value

$137.89

PnL

-$11.38

Record

54%

3357-2905 (6262)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Trail Blazers

Invested

$45.16

Value

$43.93

PnL

-$1.23

Record

58%

28788-21225 (50013)

NatoAlfistaCTR<$100

Jazz

Invested

$21.28

Value

$22.04

PnL

+$0.76

Record

50%

3877-3837 (7714)

HRTrading<$100

Trail Blazers

Invested

$9.84

Value

$12.83

PnL

+$2.99

Record

53%

4792-4312 (9104)

Research grade

AvoidJazz at 31%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Jazz

3 of 7 top traders (43%)Underdog side (market favors Trail Blazers 70%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Jazz. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleTrail Blazers 100% · 1

Diverging

sharpTrail Blazers 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrTrail Blazers 60% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000Trail Blazers 67% · 6

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Jazz wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance32.6%

30.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$206.95

Max Loss

-$100.00

306.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.