Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Jazz, while the market favors Trail Blazers (51%). 3 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Spread: Trail Blazers (-8.5)

3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Jazz (50%) · Jazz at 49¢ · $2K held · ends Oct 31

Trail Blazers51¢Jazz49¢Ends Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Jazz

Consensus Traders

Jazz 50%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.1K

Combined PnL

$3.88

Smart Money Entry

49.5¢ → 49¢

-1% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidJazz at 49%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Jazz

3 of 6 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Trail Blazers 51%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Trail Blazers51%

Jazz49%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Jazz3 traders

Total Value$104.11

Total Shares206

Combined PnL+$2.16

Trail Blazers3 traders

Total Value$44.79

Total Shares91

Combined PnL+$1.71

Jazz — 50%Trail Blazers — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Jazz. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleJazz 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpJazz 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrJazz 50% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedJazz 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Jazz 60% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Jazzavg 49.8¢	$1.8K	$1.8K	+$90.67	54% 17179-14402 (31581)
└ Jazz leg	Jazzavg 49.8¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	-$18.15
└ Trail Blazers leg	Trail Blazersavg 43.9¢	$676.62	$785.45	+$108.82
HE HerdoniaARB<$100	Trail Blazersavg 51¢	$145.35	$145.46	+$0.11	54% 3357-2905 (6262)
└ Trail Blazers leg	Trail Blazersavg 51¢	$112.34	$113.44	+$1.1
└ Jazz leg	Jazzavg 50¢	$33.01	$32.01	-$0.99
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR<$100	Jazzavg 49¢	$93.59	$96.46	+$2.86	53% 5632-4970 (10602)
NA NatoAlfista<$100	Trail Blazersavg 47¢	$23.03	$24.01	+$0.98	50% 3870-3825 (7695)
SU SunlineTicker<$100	Trail Blazersavg 47¢	$10.13	$10.56	+$0.43	62% 4158-2553 (6711)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Trail Blazersavg 49¢	$9.92	$10.22	+$0.3	58% 28695-21181 (49876)
0xheavy888CTR<$100	Jazzavg 55¢	$10	$5.15	-$0.35	55% 7124-5713 (12837)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Jazzavg 57¢	$2.85	$2.5	-$0.35	48% 2393-2622 (5015)

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Jazz

Invested

$1,757.52

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$90.67

Record

54%

17179-14402 (31581)

Both legs:

Jazz$1,080.949.8¢-$18.15

Trail Blazers$676.6243.9¢+$108.82

HerdoniaARB<$100

Trail Blazers

Invested

$145.35

Value

$145.46

PnL

+$0.11

Record

54%

3357-2905 (6262)

Both legs:

Trail Blazers$112.3451¢+$1.1

Jazz$33.0150¢-$0.99

0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR<$100

Jazz

Invested

$93.59

Value

$96.46

PnL

+$2.86

Record

53%

5632-4970 (10602)

NatoAlfista<$100

Trail Blazers

Invested

$23.03

Value

$24.01

PnL

+$0.98

Record

50%

3870-3825 (7695)

SunlineTicker<$100

Trail Blazers

Invested

$10.13

Value

$10.56

PnL

+$0.43

Record

62%

4158-2553 (6711)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Trail Blazers

Invested

$9.92

Value

$10.22

PnL

+$0.3

Record

58%

28695-21181 (49876)

0xheavy888CTR<$100

Jazz

Invested

$10

Value

$5.15

PnL

-$0.35

Record

55%

7124-5713 (12837)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Jazz

Invested

$2.85

Value

$2.5

PnL

-$0.35

Record

48%

2393-2622 (5015)

Research grade

AvoidJazz at 49%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Jazz

3 of 6 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Trail Blazers 51%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Jazz. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleJazz 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpJazz 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrJazz 50% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedJazz 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Jazz 60% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Jazz wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance51.2%

49.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$95.12

Max Loss

-$100.00

195.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.