Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Jazz, while the market favors Trail Blazers (53%). 7 of 11 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Spread: Trail Blazers (-7.5)

7 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Jazz (64%) · Jazz at 48¢ · $12K held · ends Oct 31

Trail Blazers53¢Jazz47¢Ends Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Jazz

Consensus Traders

Jazz 64%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$12.4K

Combined PnL

$98

Smart Money Entry

47.2¢ → 47.5¢

+1% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidJazz at 48%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Jazz

7 of 11 top traders (64%)Underdog side (market favors Trail Blazers 53%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Trail Blazers53%

Jazz48%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Trail Blazers4 traders

Total Value$6.0K

Total Shares11,259

Combined PnL+$110.78

Jazz7 traders

Total Value$6.3K

Total Shares12,891

Combined PnL-$12.79

Trail Blazers — 36%Jazz — 64%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GM gmpm2	Trail Blazersavg 52¢	$5.6K	$5.7K	+$160.66	53% 337-299 (636)
SU SunlineTickerCTR	Jazzavg 47.2¢	$4.0K	$4.0K	-$18.83	62% 4157-2552 (6709)
AY ay118CTR	Jazzavg 47.6¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	-$4.71	51% 25-24 (49)
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR	Jazzavg 48¢	$480	$485	+$5	53% 5631-4970 (10601)
BA Bagwell306CTR	Jazzavg 46¢	$460	$465	+$5	59% 4052-2862 (6914)
VeryLucky888	Trail Blazersavg 53¢	$1.6K	$262.5	-$50	58% 41902-30424 (72326)
LE LeLynxMalynxARB<$100	Jazzavg 49.3¢	$81.92	$82.15	+$0.23	58% 28689-21179 (49868)
└ Jazz leg	Jazzavg 49.3¢	$52.23	$49.82	-$2.41
└ Trail Blazers leg	Trail Blazersavg 48.7¢	$29.69	$32.33	+$2.64
HE HerdoniaCTR<$100	Jazzavg 47¢	$58.46	$58.41	-$0.04	54% 3357-2905 (6262)
BO BoomLaLaCTR<$100	Jazzavg 46¢	$46	$46.5	+$0.5	53% 11554-10055 (21609)
NA NatoAlfista<$100	Trail Blazersavg 51¢	$21.93	$21.93	+$0	50% 3869-3825 (7694)
0xheavy888CTR<$100	Jazzavg 47¢	$9.4	$9.7	+$0.3	55% 7124-5713 (12837)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Trail Blazersavg 44¢	$2.2	$2.33	+$0.13	48% 2389-2622 (5011)

gmpm2

Trail Blazers

Invested

$5,569.48

Value

$5.7K

PnL

+$160.66

Record

53%

337-299 (636)

SunlineTickerCTR

Jazz

Invested

$3,977.4

Value

$4.0K

PnL

-$18.83

Record

62%

4157-2552 (6709)

ay118CTR

Jazz

Invested

$1,276.5

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$4.71

Record

51%

25-24 (49)

0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR

Jazz

Invested

$480

Value

$485

PnL

+$5

Record

53%

5631-4970 (10601)

Bagwell306CTR

Jazz

Invested

$460

Value

$465

PnL

+$5

Record

59%

4052-2862 (6914)

VeryLucky888

Trail Blazers

Invested

$1,642.5

Value

$262.5

PnL

-$50

Record

58%

41902-30424 (72326)

LeLynxMalynxARB<$100

Jazz

Invested

$81.92

Value

$82.15

PnL

+$0.23

Record

58%

28689-21179 (49868)

Both legs:

Jazz$52.2349.3¢-$2.41

Trail Blazers$29.6948.7¢+$2.64

HerdoniaCTR<$100

Jazz

Invested

$58.46

Value

$58.41

PnL

-$0.04

Record

54%

3357-2905 (6262)

BoomLaLaCTR<$100

Jazz

Invested

$46

Value

$46.5

PnL

+$0.5

Record

53%

11554-10055 (21609)

NatoAlfista<$100

Trail Blazers

Invested

$21.93

Value

$21.93

PnL

+$0

Record

50%

3869-3825 (7694)

0xheavy888CTR<$100

Jazz

Invested

$9.4

Value

$9.7

PnL

+$0.3

Record

55%

7124-5713 (12837)

ameisgoat11<$100

Trail Blazers

Invested

$2.2

Value

$2.33

PnL

+$0.13

Record

48%

2389-2622 (5011)

Research grade

AvoidJazz at 48%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Jazz

7 of 11 top traders (64%)Underdog side (market favors Trail Blazers 53%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Jazz wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance49.7%

47.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$101.01

Max Loss

-$100.00

201.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.