Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Trail Blazers, while the market favors Jazz (53%). 7 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Spread: Trail Blazers (-6.5)

7 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Trail Blazers (70%) · Trail Blazers at 48¢ · $5K held · ends Oct 31

Trail Blazers48¢Jazz52¢Ends Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Trail Blazers

Consensus Traders

Trail Blazers 70%

Total Value

$5.2K

Combined PnL

$62.69

Smart Money Entry

48¢ → 47.5¢

-1% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidTrail Blazers at 48%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Trail Blazers

7 of 10 top traders (70%)Underdog side (market favors Jazz 53%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Trail Blazers48%

Jazz53%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Trail Blazers7 traders

Total Value$2.9K

Total Shares5,971

Combined PnL+$33.81

Jazz3 traders

Total Value$2.3K

Total Shares4,372

Combined PnL+$28.88

Trail Blazers — 70%Jazz — 30%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
JA JAMJAMJAM4CTR	Trail Blazersavg 48¢	$2.0K	$2.0K	+$21	73% 3585-1318 (4903)
HO HomeRunHazard	Jazzavg 51.9¢	$1.6K	$1.6K	+$19.52	54% 17169-14390 (31559)
HE Herdonia	Jazzavg 52¢	$578.18	$583.74	+$5.56	54% 3349-2901 (6250)
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR	Trail Blazersavg 48¢	$480	$495	+$15	53% 5621-4966 (10587)
VeryLucky888CTR	Trail Blazersavg 48¢	$251.35	$248.97	-$2.38	58% 41809-30357 (72166)
HI hi774c	Jazzavg 51¢	$129.28	$133.08	+$3.8	52% 4728-4448 (9176)
AY ay118CTR<$100	Trail Blazersavg 48¢	$50.4	$49.88	-$0.52	49% 23-24 (47)
0X 0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542CTR<$100	Trail Blazersavg 47¢	$32.9	$33.25	+$0.35	47% 2498-2799 (5297)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Trail Blazersavg 48¢	$24.96	$25.22	+$0.26	58% 28639-21134 (49773)
0xheavy888CTR<$100	Trail Blazersavg 47¢	$9.4	$9.5	+$0.1	55% 7108-5706 (12814)

JAMJAMJAM4CTR

Trail Blazers

Invested

$2,015.99

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$21

Record

73%

3585-1318 (4903)

HomeRunHazard

Jazz

Invested

$1,559.13

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$19.52

Record

54%

17169-14390 (31559)

Herdonia

Jazz

Invested

$578.18

Value

$583.74

PnL

+$5.56

Record

54%

3349-2901 (6250)

0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR

Trail Blazers

Invested

$480

Value

$495

PnL

+$15

Record

53%

5621-4966 (10587)

VeryLucky888CTR

Trail Blazers

Invested

$251.35

Value

$248.97

PnL

-$2.38

Record

58%

41809-30357 (72166)

hi774c

Jazz

Invested

$129.28

Value

$133.08

PnL

+$3.8

Record

52%

4728-4448 (9176)

ay118CTR<$100

Trail Blazers

Invested

$50.4

Value

$49.88

PnL

-$0.52

Record

49%

23-24 (47)

0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542CTR<$100

Trail Blazers

Invested

$32.9

Value

$33.25

PnL

+$0.35

Record

47%

2498-2799 (5297)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Trail Blazers

Invested

$24.96

Value

$25.22

PnL

+$0.26

Record

58%

28639-21134 (49773)

0xheavy888CTR<$100

Trail Blazers

Invested

$9.4

Value

$9.5

PnL

+$0.1

Record

55%

7108-5706 (12814)

Research grade

AvoidTrail Blazers at 48%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Trail Blazers

7 of 10 top traders (70%)Underdog side (market favors Jazz 53%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Trail Blazers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance49.7%

47.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$101.01

Max Loss

-$100.00

201.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.