Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Jazz, while the market favors Trail Blazers (87%). 3 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Spread: Trail Blazers (-16.5)

3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Jazz (43%) · Jazz at 14¢ · $3K held · ended Oct 31

Trail Blazers87¢Jazz13¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Jazz

Consensus Traders

Jazz 43%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.6K

Combined PnL

$556.79

Smart Money Entry

33.8¢ → 13.5¢

-60% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidJazz at 14%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Jazz

3 of 7 top traders (43%)Underdog side (market favors Trail Blazers 87%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Trail Blazers87%

Jazz14%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Jazz3 traders

Total Value$1.3K

Total Shares2,125

Combined PnL+$517.88

Trail Blazers4 traders

Total Value$596.95

Total Shares1,708

Combined PnL+$38.91

Jazz — 43%Trail Blazers — 57%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
JU justaluckydudeCTR	Jazzavg 32.8¢	$726.23	$1.2K	+$522.1	53% 10788-9397 (20185)
TA takeormakeARB<$100	Trail Blazersavg 62.4¢	$681.38	$671.39	-$9.99	53% 4137-3598 (7735)
└ Jazz leg	Jazzavg 43.2¢	$314.79	$433.62	+$118.83
└ Trail Blazers leg	Trail Blazersavg 62.4¢	$366.59	$237.77	-$128.82
UP UpTheBlues	Trail Blazersavg 22.2¢	$332.61	$348.75	+$16.14	59% 45969-32302 (78271)
TO torta.tech	Trail Blazersavg 42¢	$210	$232.5	+$22.5	63% 8137-4876 (13013)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	Jazzavg 50¢	$60.95	$62.4	-$5.81	48% 943-1015 (1958)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Jazzavg 34¢	$35.04	$36.63	+$1.59	53% 4792-4312 (9104)
0X 0xe3eeb127d5763a6e4ad597f773f9d9c94d5176<$100	Trail Blazersavg 46¢	$11.5	$11.63	+$0.13	53% 6134-5384 (11518)
GH ghorrock<$100	Trail Blazersavg 68¢	$3.93	$4.07	+$0.14	57% 13860-10628 (24488)

justaluckydudeCTR

Jazz

Invested

$726.23

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$522.1

Record

53%

10788-9397 (20185)

takeormakeARB<$100

Trail Blazers

Invested

$681.38

Value

$671.39

PnL

-$9.99

Record

53%

4137-3598 (7735)

Both legs:

Jazz$314.7943.2¢+$118.83

Trail Blazers$366.5962.4¢-$128.82

UpTheBlues

Trail Blazers

Invested

$332.61

Value

$348.75

PnL

+$16.14

Record

59%

45969-32302 (78271)

torta.tech

Trail Blazers

Invested

$210

Value

$232.5

PnL

+$22.5

Record

63%

8137-4876 (13013)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

Jazz

Invested

$60.95

Value

$62.4

PnL

-$5.81

Record

48%

943-1015 (1958)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Jazz

Invested

$35.04

Value

$36.63

PnL

+$1.59

Record

53%

4792-4312 (9104)

0xe3eeb127d5763a6e4ad597f773f9d9c94d5176<$100

Trail Blazers

Invested

$11.5

Value

$11.63

PnL

+$0.13

Record

53%

6134-5384 (11518)

ghorrock<$100

Trail Blazers

Invested

$3.93

Value

$4.07

PnL

+$0.14

Record

57%

13860-10628 (24488)

Research grade

AvoidJazz at 14%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Jazz

3 of 7 top traders (43%)Underdog side (market favors Trail Blazers 87%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Jazz wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance15.1%

13.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$561.38

Max Loss

-$100.00

661.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.