Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Jazz, while the market favors Trail Blazers (93%). 2 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Spread: Trail Blazers (-14.5)

2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Jazz (40%) · Jazz at 7.0¢ · $4K held · ended Oct 31

Trail Blazers93¢Jazz7¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Jazz

Consensus Traders

Jazz 40%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.5K

Combined PnL

-$500.35

Smart Money Entry

46.9¢ → 7¢

-85% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

AvoidJazz at 7%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Jazz

2 of 5 top traders (40%)Underdog side (market favors Trail Blazers 93%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Trail Blazers93%

Jazz7%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Jazz2 traders

Total Value$2.0K

Total Shares4,364

Combined PnL-$47.3

Trail Blazers3 traders

Total Value$350.01

Total Shares1,556

Combined PnL-$453.05

Jazz — 40%Trail Blazers — 60%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SU SunflowaRebuildYearCTR	Jazzavg 47¢	$2.0K	$2.0K	-$21.28	47% 331-377 (708)
JU justaluckydudeARB<$100	Jazzavg 32.4¢	$439.43	$539.24	+$99.81	53% 10788-9397 (20185)
└ Jazz leg	Jazzavg 32.4¢	$258.28	$294.52	+$36.24
└ Trail Blazers leg	Trail Blazersavg 46.6¢	$181.15	$244.72	+$63.57
TA takeormakeARB<$100	Jazzavg 41.5¢	$570.57	$491.24	-$79.33	53% 4137-3598 (7735)
└ Jazz leg	Jazzavg 41.5¢	$313.83	$280.06	-$33.77
└ Trail Blazers leg	Trail Blazersavg 76.6¢	$256.74	$211.18	-$45.56
hammyandcheese	Trail Blazersavg 53.4¢	$631.41	$266.13	-$365.28	55% 390-318 (708)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100	Jazzavg 48.9¢	$198.36	$160.84	-$58.75	48% 943-1015 (1958)
└ Jazz leg	Jazzavg 48.9¢	$305.5	$84.33	-$71.25
└ Trail Blazers leg	Trail Blazersavg 48.4¢	$42.79	$76.51	+$12.5
TO torta.tech	Trail Blazersavg 46¢	$163.3	$79.88	-$83.43	63% 8137-4876 (13013)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Jazzavg 44.7¢	$51.53	$25.5	-$26.03	53% 4792-4312 (9104)
0X 0xe3eeb127d5763a6e4ad597f773f9d9c94d5176<$100	Trail Blazersavg 47¢	$8.35	$4	-$4.35	53% 6134-5384 (11518)

SunflowaRebuildYearCTR

Jazz

Invested

$2,000

Value

$2.0K

PnL

-$21.28

Record

47%

331-377 (708)

justaluckydudeARB<$100

Jazz

Invested

$439.43

Value

$539.24

PnL

+$99.81

Record

53%

10788-9397 (20185)

Both legs:

Jazz$258.2832.4¢+$36.24

Trail Blazers$181.1546.6¢+$63.57

takeormakeARB<$100

Jazz

Invested

$570.57

Value

$491.24

PnL

-$79.33

Record

53%

4137-3598 (7735)

Both legs:

Jazz$313.8341.5¢-$33.77

Trail Blazers$256.7476.6¢-$45.56

hammyandcheese

Trail Blazers

Invested

$631.41

Value

$266.13

PnL

-$365.28

Record

55%

390-318 (708)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100

Jazz

Invested

$198.36

Value

$160.84

PnL

-$58.75

Record

48%

943-1015 (1958)

Both legs:

Jazz$305.548.9¢-$71.25

Trail Blazers$42.7948.4¢+$12.5

torta.tech

Trail Blazers

Invested

$163.3

Value

$79.88

PnL

-$83.43

Record

63%

8137-4876 (13013)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Jazz

Invested

$51.53

Value

$25.5

PnL

-$26.03

Record

53%

4792-4312 (9104)

0xe3eeb127d5763a6e4ad597f773f9d9c94d5176<$100

Trail Blazers

Invested

$8.35

Value

PnL

-$4.35

Record

53%

6134-5384 (11518)

Research grade

AvoidJazz at 7%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Jazz

2 of 5 top traders (40%)Underdog side (market favors Trail Blazers 93%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Jazz wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance8.4%

7.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1095.03

Max Loss

-$100.00

1195.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.