Spread: Trail Blazers (-12.5)

4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Trail Blazers (67%) · Trail Blazers at 96¢ · $971 held · ended Oct 31

Trail Blazers96¢Jazz4¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

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Avoid

Trail Blazers

Consensus Traders

Trail Blazers 67%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$970.6

Combined PnL

$8.66

Research grade

AvoidTrail Blazers at 96%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Trail Blazers

4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Trail Blazers96%

Jazz4%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Trail Blazers4 traders

Total Value$35.7

Total Shares67

Combined PnL+$1.93

Jazz2 traders

Total Value$30.79

Total Shares43

Combined PnL+$6.73

Trail Blazers — 67%Jazz — 33%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TA takeormakeARB<$100	Trail Blazersavg 78.2¢	$688.32	$760.03	+$71.71	53% 4137-3598 (7735)
└ Jazz leg	Jazzavg 20.6¢	$301.15	$401.22	+$100.08
└ Trail Blazers leg	Trail Blazersavg 78.2¢	$387.17	$358.81	-$28.36
JU justaluckydudeARB<$100	Jazzavg 54¢	$169	$144.08	-$24.92	53% 10788-9397 (20185)
└ Jazz leg	Jazzavg 54¢	$121.96	$81.36	-$40.6
└ Trail Blazers leg	Trail Blazersavg 48¢	$47.04	$62.72	+$15.68
UP UpTheBlues<$100	Trail Blazersavg 32.1¢	$20.84	$20.02	-$0.82	59% 45969-32302 (78271)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	Jazzavg 45¢	$10.22	$16.13	+$5.91	48% 943-1015 (1958)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Jazzavg 67¢	$13.84	$14.66	+$0.83	58% 28788-21225 (50013)
HRTrading<$100	Trail Blazersavg 49.9¢	$7.78	$12.78	+$5	53% 4792-4312 (9104)
TO torta.tech<$100	Trail Blazersavg 49¢	$2.45	$1.45	-$1	63% 8137-4876 (13013)
0X 0xe3eeb127d5763a6e4ad597f773f9d9c94d5176<$100	Trail Blazersavg 54¢	$2.7	$1.45	-$1.25	53% 6134-5384 (11518)

takeormakeARB<$100

Trail Blazers

Invested

$688.32

Value

$760.03

PnL

+$71.71

Record

53%

4137-3598 (7735)

Both legs:

Jazz$301.1520.6¢+$100.08

Trail Blazers$387.1778.2¢-$28.36

justaluckydudeARB<$100

Jazz

Invested

$169

Value

$144.08

PnL

-$24.92

Record

53%

10788-9397 (20185)

Both legs:

Jazz$121.9654¢-$40.6

Trail Blazers$47.0448¢+$15.68

UpTheBlues<$100

Trail Blazers

Invested

$20.84

Value

$20.02

PnL

-$0.82

Record

59%

45969-32302 (78271)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

Jazz

Invested

$10.22

Value

$16.13

PnL

+$5.91

Record

48%

943-1015 (1958)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Jazz

Invested

$13.84

Value

$14.66

PnL

+$0.83

Record

58%

28788-21225 (50013)

HRTrading<$100

Trail Blazers

Invested

$7.78

Value

$12.78

PnL

+$5

Record

53%

4792-4312 (9104)

torta.tech<$100

Trail Blazers

Invested

$2.45

Value

$1.45

PnL

-$1

Record

63%

8137-4876 (13013)

0xe3eeb127d5763a6e4ad597f773f9d9c94d5176<$100

Trail Blazers

Invested

$2.7

Value

$1.45

PnL

-$1.25

Record

53%

6134-5384 (11518)

Research grade

AvoidTrail Blazers at 96%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Trail Blazers

4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Trail Blazers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance97.1%

96.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$2.94

Max Loss

-$100.00

102.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.