Trail Blazers vs. Jazz

5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Trail Blazers (56%) · Trail Blazers at 67¢ · $4K held · ends Oct 31

Trail Blazers67¢Jazz33¢Ends Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Trail Blazers

Consensus Traders

Trail Blazers 56%

Total Value

$4.3K

Combined PnL

-$211.33

Smart Money Entry

67.6¢ → 66.5¢

-2% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidTrail Blazers at 67%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Trail Blazers

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Trail Blazers67%

Jazz34%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Jazz4 traders

Total Value$1.8K

Total Shares5,941

Combined PnL-$215.27

Trail Blazers5 traders

Total Value$2.5K

Total Shares3,592

Combined PnL+$3.94

Jazz — 44%Trail Blazers — 56%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Trail Blazers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpTrail Blazers 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrTrail Blazers 50% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Trail Blazers 50% · 4

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BU bubananaCTR	Jazzavg 34¢	$1.8K	$1.6K	-$207.8	45% 66-81 (147)
poshposh	Trail Blazersavg 66.1¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$6.34	59% 10038-7001 (17039)
0X 0x4278F7E5CB5f2d68d204d7403270c79CB07e0E92-1762724768941	Trail Blazersavg 69.5¢	$664.85	$669.21	+$9.14	88% 242-33 (275)
OD Oddstorm	Trail Blazersavg 68.9¢	$561.51	$541.78	-$19.73	38% 383-625 (1008)
38 38791873984189CTR	Jazzavg 29.6¢	$151.76	$153.74	+$1.98	46% 8113-9541 (17654)
FO forecastication4<$100	Trail Blazersavg 65¢	$67.54	$72.73	+$5.2	49% 1151-1188 (2339)
BO BoomLaLa<$100	Trail Blazersavg 67¢	$67	$70	+$3	53% 11542-10038 (21580)
funnydayCTR<$100	Jazzavg 34.6¢	$69.19	$60	-$9.19	50% 3903-3887 (7790)
FO Forecastication2CTR<$100	Jazzavg 32¢	$4.16	$3.9	-$0.26	50% 6984-6978 (13962)

bubananaCTR

Jazz

Invested

$1,772.6

Value

$1.6K

PnL

-$207.8

Record

45%

66-81 (147)

poshposh

Trail Blazers

Invested

$1,110.19

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$6.34

Record

59%

10038-7001 (17039)

0x4278F7E5CB5f2d68d204d7403270c79CB07e0E92-1762724768941

Trail Blazers

Invested

$664.85

Value

$669.21

PnL

+$9.14

Record

88%

242-33 (275)

Oddstorm

Trail Blazers

Invested

$561.51

Value

$541.78

PnL

-$19.73

Record

38%

383-625 (1008)

38791873984189CTR

Jazz

Invested

$151.76

Value

$153.74

PnL

+$1.98

Record

46%

8113-9541 (17654)

forecastication4<$100

Trail Blazers

Invested

$67.54

Value

$72.73

PnL

+$5.2

Record

49%

1151-1188 (2339)

BoomLaLa<$100

Trail Blazers

Invested

$67

Value

$70

PnL

+$3

Record

53%

11542-10038 (21580)

funnydayCTR<$100

Jazz

Invested

$69.19

Value

$60

PnL

-$9.19

Record

50%

3903-3887 (7790)

Forecastication2CTR<$100

Jazz

Invested

$4.16

Value

$3.9

PnL

-$0.26

Record

50%

6984-6978 (13962)

Research grade

AvoidTrail Blazers at 67%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Trail Blazers

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Trail Blazers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpTrail Blazers 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrTrail Blazers 50% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Trail Blazers 50% · 4

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Trail Blazers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance68.6%

66.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$45.78

Max Loss

-$100.00

145.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.