Trail Blazers vs. Kings: O/U 227.5
2 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Over (29%) · Over at 55¢ · $6K held · ends Nov 14
⚠️
Avoid
Over
7
Over 29%
1 arb excluded
$6.5K
-$22.01
54¢ → 54.5¢
+1% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
AvoidOver at 55%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 7 top traders (29%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
29% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 nigiri99 | Overavg 54¢ | $3.2K | $3.2K | -$30.06 | 53% 472-427 (899) |
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100 | Underavg 46¢ | $2.5K | $2.5K | +$34.7 | 57% 3561-2704 (6265) |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 46¢ | $2.0K | $2.0K | +$21.33 | |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 52.1¢ | $492.79 | $506.17 | +$13.38 | |
GC GC-PCTR | Underavg 46¢ | $322 | $325.5 | +$3.5 | 33% 251-499 (750) |
SE sentrioCTR | Underavg 46¢ | $226.51 | $228.97 | +$2.46 | 43% 809-1065 (1874) |
NM NM-PCTR | Underavg 46¢ | $161 | $162.75 | +$1.75 | 59% 3648-2489 (6137) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Overavg 52.3¢ | $28.88 | $29.37 | +$0.49 | 53% 1374-1218 (2592) |
 0xheavy888CTR<$100 | Underavg 47¢ | $14.69 | $4.59 | -$0.1 | 53% 390-340 (730) |
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100 | Underavg 47¢ | $2.35 | $2.3 | -$0.05 | 40% 589-893 (1482) |
nigiri99Invested
$3,246.48
Value
$3.2K
PnL
-$30.06
Record
53%
472-427 (899)
Invested
$2,454.79
Value
$2.5K
PnL
+$34.7
Record
57%
3561-2704 (6265)
Both legs:
Invested
$322
Value
$325.5
PnL
+$3.5
Record
33%
251-499 (750)
Invested
$226.51
Value
$228.97
PnL
+$2.46
Record
43%
809-1065 (1874)
Invested
$161
Value
$162.75
PnL
+$1.75
Record
59%
3648-2489 (6137)
Invested
$28.88
Value
$29.37
PnL
+$0.49
Record
53%
1374-1218 (2592)
0xheavy888CTR<$100Invested
$14.69
Value
$4.59
PnL
-$0.1
Record
53%
390-340 (730)
Invested
$2.35
Value
$2.3
PnL
-$0.05
Record
40%
589-893 (1482)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
54.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.