Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Trail Blazers, while the market favors Lakers (53%). 3 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Spread: Lakers (-2.5)

3 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Trail Blazers (33%) · Trail Blazers at 48¢ · $8K held · ends Nov 7

Lakers53¢Trail Blazers47¢Ends Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Trail Blazers

Consensus Traders

Trail Blazers 33%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$8.2K

Combined PnL

-$268.54

Smart Money Entry

49¢ → 47.5¢

-3% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidTrail Blazers at 48%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Trail Blazers

3 of 9 top traders (33%)Underdog side (market favors Lakers 53%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Lakers53%

Trail Blazers48%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Trail Blazers3 traders

Total Value$4.5K

Total Shares9,483

Combined PnL-$141.04

Lakers6 traders

Total Value$3.6K

Total Shares7,001

Combined PnL-$127.51

Trail Blazers — 33%Lakers — 67%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RA RaisuuCTR	Trail Blazersavg 49¢	$4.6K	$4.5K	-$141.15	— 11-6 (17)
HO HomeRunHazard	Lakersavg 52.2¢	$3.3K	$3.2K	-$139.44	54% 18309-15408 (33717)
VeryLucky888	Lakersavg 50.7¢	$440.14	$361.72	+$12.6	58% 47033-33917 (80950)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Lakersavg 51¢	$144.33	$118.51	+$3.17	48% 61871-66733 (128604)
└ Lakers leg	Lakersavg 51¢	$90.78	$93.45	+$2.38
└ Trail Blazers leg	Trail Blazersavg 47.4¢	$25.01	$25.06	+$0.79
PA Pan9X<$100	Lakersavg 50.7¢	$18.75	$18.5	-$0.25	54% 10087-8472 (18559)
NM NM-PCTR<$100	Trail Blazersavg 48¢	$17.94	$18.5	+$0.56	64% 10066-5621 (15687)
SU SunlineTickerCTR<$100	Trail Blazersavg 51.2¢	$18.45	$18	-$0.45	60% 4632-3039 (7671)
MO monkeymashingkeyboard<$100	Lakersavg 53.2¢	$11.78	$11.4	-$0.39	53% 661-579 (1240)
HE Herdonia<$100	Lakersavg 51¢	$6.63	$6.5	-$0.13	51% 3823-3747 (7570)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Lakersavg 50¢	$4.9	$5	+$0.1	52% 8839-8035 (16874)

RaisuuCTR

Trail Blazers

Invested

$4,610.77

Value

$4.5K

PnL

-$141.15

Record

—

11-6 (17)

HomeRunHazard

Lakers

Invested

$3,311.51

Value

$3.2K

PnL

-$139.44

Record

54%

18309-15408 (33717)

VeryLucky888

Lakers

Invested

$440.14

Value

$361.72

PnL

+$12.6

Record

58%

47033-33917 (80950)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Lakers

Invested

$144.33

Value

$118.51

PnL

+$3.17

Record

48%

61871-66733 (128604)

Both legs:

Lakers$90.7851¢+$2.38

Trail Blazers$25.0147.4¢+$0.79

Pan9X<$100

Lakers

Invested

$18.75

Value

$18.5

PnL

-$0.25

Record

54%

10087-8472 (18559)

NM-PCTR<$100

Trail Blazers

Invested

$17.94

Value

$18.5

PnL

+$0.56

Record

64%

10066-5621 (15687)

SunlineTickerCTR<$100

Trail Blazers

Invested

$18.45

Value

$18

PnL

-$0.45

Record

60%

4632-3039 (7671)

monkeymashingkeyboard<$100

Lakers

Invested

$11.78

Value

$11.4

PnL

-$0.39

Record

53%

661-579 (1240)

Herdonia<$100

Lakers

Invested

$6.63

Value

$6.5

PnL

-$0.13

Record

51%

3823-3747 (7570)

ameisgoat11<$100

Lakers

Invested

$4.9

Value

PnL

+$0.1

Record

52%

8839-8035 (16874)

Research grade

AvoidTrail Blazers at 48%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Trail Blazers

3 of 9 top traders (33%)Underdog side (market favors Lakers 53%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Trail Blazers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance49.7%

47.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$101.01

Max Loss

-$100.00

201.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.