Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Trail Blazers, while the market favors Lakers (57%). 3 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Trail Blazers vs. Lakers

3 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Trail Blazers (30%) · Trail Blazers at 43¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 7

Trail Blazers43¢Lakers57¢Ends Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Trail Blazers

Consensus Traders

Trail Blazers 30%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.8K

Combined PnL

$40.02

Smart Money Entry

41.5¢ → 42.5¢

+3% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidTrail Blazers at 43%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Trail Blazers

3 of 10 top traders (30%)Underdog side (market favors Lakers 57%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Trail Blazers43%

Lakers57%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Trail Blazers3 traders

Total Value$1.6K

Total Shares3,802

Combined PnL+$47.09

Lakers7 traders

Total Value$991.06

Total Shares1,737

Combined PnL-$7.06

Trail Blazers — 30%Lakers — 70%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-3 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 92%

Freshness

Fresh

10h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

30% of non-arb traders are on Trail Blazers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Trail Blazers) and the top 1000 (9 on Lakers) disagree here.

whaleLakers 67% · 3

Diverging

ctrLakers 70% · 10

Diverging

Hand-pickedTrail Blazers 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Lakers 78% · 9

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AP AppleTiiimeCTR	Trail Blazersavg 41¢	$1.2K	$1.3K	+$45.02	55% 70-58 (128)
nigiri99	Lakersavg 60.2¢	$547.3	$518.13	-$4.54	46% 8686-10357 (19043)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR	Trail Blazersavg 43.2¢	$342.49	$340.76	-$1.73	50% 21334-21619 (42953)
TA takeormake	Lakersavg 58¢	$315.52	$310.08	-$5.44	52% 4956-4507 (9463)
OD OddstormARB<$100	Trail Blazersavg 40.7¢	$149.27	$153.1	+$1.95	48% 7418-7956 (15374)
└ Trail Blazers leg	Trail Blazersavg 40.7¢	$101.77	$107.5	+$2.65
└ Lakers leg	Lakersavg 59.4¢	$47.5	$45.6	-$0.7
38 38791873984189<$100	Lakersavg 58.4¢	$68.22	$67.66	-$0.56	48% 61710-66575 (128285)
BO BoomLaLa<$100	Lakersavg 57¢	$57	$57.5	+$0.5	53% 12539-11248 (23787)
PA Pan9X	Lakersavg 58.2¢	$113.97	$23.57	+$4.01	54% 10064-8455 (18519)
GA Gaditima<$100	Lakersavg 59.1¢	$24.22	$11.27	-$0.95	48% 7430-8147 (15577)
VeryLucky888CTR	Trail Blazersavg 42¢	$161.8	$4.63	+$3.8	58% 47020-33905 (80925)
RL RLWG<$100	Lakersavg 60¢	$3	$2.85	-$0.08	50% 8335-8393 (16728)

AppleTiiimeCTR

Trail Blazers

Invested

$1,229.5

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$45.02

Record

55%

70-58 (128)

nigiri99

Lakers

Invested

$547.3

Value

$518.13

PnL

-$4.54

Record

46%

8686-10357 (19043)

omnibus-076daaCTR

Trail Blazers

Invested

$342.49

Value

$340.76

PnL

-$1.73

Record

50%

21334-21619 (42953)

takeormake

Lakers

Invested

$315.52

Value

$310.08

PnL

-$5.44

Record

52%

4956-4507 (9463)

OddstormARB<$100

Trail Blazers

Invested

$149.27

Value

$153.1

PnL

+$1.95

Record

48%

7418-7956 (15374)

Both legs:

Trail Blazers$101.7740.7¢+$2.65

Lakers$47.559.4¢-$0.7

38791873984189<$100

Lakers

Invested

$68.22

Value

$67.66

PnL

-$0.56

Record

48%

61710-66575 (128285)

BoomLaLa<$100

Lakers

Invested

$57

Value

$57.5

PnL

+$0.5

Record

53%

12539-11248 (23787)

Pan9X

Lakers

Invested

$113.97

Value

$23.57

PnL

+$4.01

Record

54%

10064-8455 (18519)

Gaditima<$100

Lakers

Invested

$24.22

Value

$11.27

PnL

-$0.95

Record

48%

7430-8147 (15577)

VeryLucky888CTR

Trail Blazers

Invested

$161.8

Value

$4.63

PnL

+$3.8

Record

58%

47020-33905 (80925)

RLWG<$100

Lakers

Invested

Value

$2.85

PnL

-$0.08

Record

50%

8335-8393 (16728)

Research grade

AvoidTrail Blazers at 43%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Trail Blazers

3 of 10 top traders (30%)Underdog side (market favors Lakers 57%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-3 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 92%

Freshness

Fresh

10h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

30% of non-arb traders are on Trail Blazers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Trail Blazers) and the top 1000 (9 on Lakers) disagree here.

whaleLakers 67% · 3

Diverging

ctrLakers 70% · 10

Diverging

Hand-pickedTrail Blazers 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Lakers 78% · 9

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Trail Blazers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance44.7%

42.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$123.57

Max Loss

-$100.00

223.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.