Trail Blazers vs. Lakers: O/U 249.5
3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Under (43%) · Under at 82¢ · $11K held · ends Oct 28
⚠️
Avoid
Under
7
Under 43%
$10.5K
-$493.27
82¢ → 81.5¢
-1% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidUnder at 82%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 7 top traders (43%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TA takeormake | Underavg 82¢ | $10.0K | $9.1K | -$853.65 | 54% 3774-3233 (7007) |
 TheOneto3CTR | Overavg 18¢ | $656.1 | $911.25 | +$255.15 | 51% 455-438 (893) |
 RollAwayTheDewCTR | Overavg 20¢ | $182.5 | $228.13 | +$45.63 | 53% 301-270 (571) |
EN ENDBOSSLLCCTR | Overavg 18¢ | $153.07 | $212.6 | +$59.53 | 42% 254-357 (611) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Underavg 77.5¢ | $18.3 | $19.38 | +$1.08 | 54% 2678-2303 (4981) |
FO Forecastication2CTR<$100 | Overavg 19¢ | $10.45 | $10.18 | -$0.27 | 50% 6752-6755 (13507) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Underavg 81¢ | $9.72 | $9 | -$0.72 | 58% 27891-20538 (48429) |
Invested
$9,999.89
Value
$9.1K
PnL
-$853.65
Record
54%
3774-3233 (7007)
TheOneto3CTRInvested
$656.1
Value
$911.25
PnL
+$255.15
Record
51%
455-438 (893)
RollAwayTheDewCTRInvested
$182.5
Value
$228.13
PnL
+$45.63
Record
53%
301-270 (571)
Invested
$153.07
Value
$212.6
PnL
+$59.53
Record
42%
254-357 (611)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$18.3
Value
$19.38
PnL
+$1.08
Record
54%
2678-2303 (4981)
Invested
$10.45
Value
$10.18
PnL
-$0.27
Record
50%
6752-6755 (13507)
Invested
$9.72
Value
$9
PnL
-$0.72
Record
58%
27891-20538 (48429)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
81.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.