Trail Blazers vs. Lakers: O/U 243.5

3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Under (75%) · Under at 72¢ · $61 held · ends Oct 28

Over28¢Under72¢Ends Wed, Oct 28, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 75%

Total Value

$60.69

Combined PnL

$1.52

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 72%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over28%

Under72%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under3 traders

Total Value$51.12

Total Shares71

Combined PnL+$2.02

Over1 trader

Total Value$9.57

Total Shares33

Combined PnL-$0.5

Under — 75%Over — 25%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1<$100	Underavg 71¢	$23.43	$23.76	+$0.33	54% 55451-47514 (102965)
HRTrading<$100	Underavg 66.3¢	$15.92	$17.28	+$1.48	54% 2744-2368 (5112)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Underavg 71¢	$9.94	$10.08	+$0.21	58% 27917-20560 (48477)
FO Forecastication2CTR<$100	Overavg 29¢	$9.57	$9.57	-$0.5	50% 6756-6757 (13513)

RN1<$100

Under

Invested

$23.43

Value

$23.76

PnL

+$0.33

Record

54%

55451-47514 (102965)

HRTrading<$100

Under

Invested

$15.92

Value

$17.28

PnL

+$1.48

Record

54%

2744-2368 (5112)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Under

Invested

$9.94

Value

$10.08

PnL

+$0.21

Record

58%

27917-20560 (48477)

Forecastication2CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$9.57

Value

$9.57

PnL

-$0.5

Record

50%

6756-6757 (13513)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 72%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance74.0%

72.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$35.16

Max Loss

-$100.00

135.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.