Trail Blazers vs. Lakers: O/U 239.5

2 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Under (67%) · Under at 64¢ · $2K held · ends Oct 28

Over36¢Under64¢Ends Wed, Oct 28, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 67%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.1K

Combined PnL

$149.1

Smart Money Entry

58.4¢ → 64¢

+10% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 64%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

2 of 3 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over36%

Under64%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under2 traders

Total Value$2.0K

Total Shares3,126

Combined PnL+$149.17

Over1 trader

Total Value$5.04

Total Shares14

Combined PnL-$0.07

Under — 67%Over — 33%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SU SunlineTicker	Underavg 57¢	$1.4K	$1.6K	+$148.86	62% 4008-2448 (6456)
TA takeormake	Underavg 64¢	$412.4	$412.72	+$0.31	54% 3774-3233 (7007)
LE LeLynxMalynxARB<$100	Overavg 40¢	$62.17	$61.16	-$1.62	58% 27891-20538 (48429)
└ Over leg	Overavg 40¢	$38.8	$34.92	-$3.88
└ Under leg	Underavg 57¢	$23.37	$26.24	+$2.26
FO Forecastication2CTR<$100	Overavg 36¢	$5.04	$5.04	-$0.07	50% 6752-6755 (13507)

SunlineTicker

Under

Invested

$1,414.17

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$148.86

Record

62%

4008-2448 (6456)

takeormake

Under

Invested

$412.4

Value

$412.72

PnL

+$0.31

Record

54%

3774-3233 (7007)

LeLynxMalynxARB<$100

Over

Invested

$62.17

Value

$61.16

PnL

-$1.62

Record

58%

27891-20538 (48429)

Both legs:

Over$38.840¢-$3.88

Under$23.3757¢+$2.26

Forecastication2CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$5.04

Value

$5.04

PnL

-$0.07

Record

50%

6752-6755 (13507)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 64%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

2 of 3 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance66.1%

64.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$51.20

Max Loss

-$100.00

151.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.