Trail Blazers vs. Lakers: O/U 233.5
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Over (40%) · Over at 51¢ · $6K held · ends Oct 28
⚠️
Avoid
Over
5
Over 40%
$5.6K
-$43.07
51.6¢ → 50.5¢
-2% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
AvoidOver at 51%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
40% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazard | Overavg 51.6¢ | $3.3K | $3.2K | -$71.75 | 54% 16738-14040 (30778) |
IA ianf2026CTR | Underavg 49¢ | $2.1K | $2.1K | +$21.72 | 47% 83-93 (176) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Underavg 47¢ | $135.78 | $141.45 | +$5.67 | 58% 40382-29168 (69550) |
HA hang808<$100 | Overavg 51¢ | $98.43 | $98.43 | -$0.97 | 40% 143-213 (356) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Underavg 45.8¢ | $44.51 | $46.52 | +$2.25 | 58% 27869-20504 (48373) |
Invested
$3,251.96
Value
$3.2K
PnL
-$71.75
Record
54%
16738-14040 (30778)
Invested
$2,128.56
Value
$2.1K
PnL
+$21.72
Record
47%
83-93 (176)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$135.78
Value
$141.45
PnL
+$5.67
Record
58%
40382-29168 (69550)
Invested
$98.43
Value
$98.43
PnL
-$0.97
Record
40%
143-213 (356)
Invested
$44.51
Value
$46.52
PnL
+$2.25
Record
58%
27869-20504 (48373)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
50.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.