Trail Blazers vs. Lakers: O/U 231.5
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Over (67%) · Over at 55¢ · $10K held · ends Oct 28
⚠️
Avoid
Over
6
Over 67%
$9.8K
$1.69
55.3¢ → 54.5¢
-1% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidOver at 55%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazard | Overavg 55.3¢ | $5.2K | $5.2K | -$26.42 | 54% 16758-14063 (30821) |
SU SunlineTickerCTR | Underavg 45¢ | $3.2K | $3.2K | -$0 | 62% 4008-2448 (6456) |
WO woshikd99CTR | Underavg 44¢ | $1.2K | $1.2K | +$26.8 | 55% 24-20 (44) |
 RN1 | Overavg 55¢ | $137.5 | $137.5 | +$0 | 54% 55411-47463 (102874) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Overavg 55¢ | $20.93 | $22.56 | +$1.51 | 58% 27891-20538 (48429) |
NA NatoAlfista<$100 | Overavg 55¢ | $22 | $21.8 | -$0.2 | 50% 3679-3657 (7336) |
Invested
$5,243.83
Value
$5.2K
PnL
-$26.42
Record
54%
16758-14063 (30821)
Invested
$3,157.28
Value
$3.2K
PnL
-$0
Record
62%
4008-2448 (6456)
Invested
$1,179.2
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$26.8
Record
55%
24-20 (44)
RN1Invested
$137.5
Value
$137.5
PnL
+$0
Record
54%
55411-47463 (102874)
Invested
$20.93
Value
$22.56
PnL
+$1.51
Record
58%
27891-20538 (48429)
Invested
$22
Value
$21.8
PnL
-$0.2
Record
50%
3679-3657 (7336)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
54.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.