Trail Blazers vs. Lakers: O/U 229.5

3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Over (50%) · Over at 62¢ · $8K held · ended Oct 28

Over62¢Under38¢Ended Wed, Oct 28, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 50%

Total Value

$8.4K

Combined PnL

-$356.22

Smart Money Entry

58¢ → 61.5¢

+6% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 62%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over62%

Under39%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over3 traders

Total Value$5.5K

Total Shares9,036

Combined PnL+$216.76

Under3 traders

Total Value$2.8K

Total Shares8,149

Combined PnL-$572.98

Over — 50%Under — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SU SunlineTicker	Overavg 58¢	$5.1K	$5.3K	+$216.9	62% 4008-2448 (6456)
TA takeormakeCTR	Underavg 42¢	$3.2K	$2.6K	-$563.4	54% 3774-3233 (7007)
FO Forecastication2CTR	Underavg 41.5¢	$259.63	$249.99	-$9.64	50% 6761-6761 (13522)
RN1	Overavg 59¢	$147.5	$146.25	-$1.25	54% 55509-47585 (103094)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Overavg 58.4¢	$45.92	$47.04	+$1.11	58% 27963-20593 (48556)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Underavg 40¢	$5.83	$3	+$0.06	57% 13006-9921 (22927)

SunlineTicker

Over

Invested

$5,119.07

Value

$5.3K

PnL

+$216.9

Record

62%

4008-2448 (6456)

takeormakeCTR

Under

Invested

$3,156.61

Value

$2.6K

PnL

-$563.4

Record

54%

3774-3233 (7007)

Forecastication2CTR

Under

Invested

$259.63

Value

$249.99

PnL

-$9.64

Record

50%

6761-6761 (13522)

RN1

Over

Invested

$147.5

Value

$146.25

PnL

-$1.25

Record

54%

55509-47585 (103094)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Over

Invested

$45.92

Value

$47.04

PnL

+$1.11

Record

58%

27963-20593 (48556)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$5.83

Value

PnL

+$0.06

Record

57%

13006-9921 (22927)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 62%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Over

3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance63.7%

61.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$57.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

157.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.