Spread: Lakers (-1.5)
3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Lakers (50%) · Lakers at 54¢ · $7K held · ends Oct 28
⚠️
Avoid
Lakers
6
Lakers 50%
1 arb excluded
$7.0K
$26.46
55.8¢ → 53.5¢
-4% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidLakers at 54%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 6 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazard | Lakersavg 55.1¢ | $3.3K | $3.3K | +$18.46 | 54% 16734-14039 (30773) |
WO woshikd99 | Lakersavg 56.7¢ | $2.0K | $1.9K | -$42.5 | — |
SU SunlineTickerCTR | Trail Blazersavg 43.2¢ | $1.6K | $1.7K | +$50.95 | 62% 4007-2448 (6455) |
LE LeLynxMalynxARB<$100 | Lakersavg 54.8¢ | $70.37 | $71.66 | +$1.29 | 58% 27868-20503 (48371) |
| └ Lakers leg | Lakersavg 54.8¢ | $44.39 | $44.96 | +$0.57 | |
| └ Trail Blazers leg | Trail Blazersavg 43.3¢ | $25.98 | $26.7 | +$0.72 | |
 VeryLucky888 | Lakersavg 55¢ | $305.94 | $23.01 | -$0.51 | 58% 40375-29164 (69539) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Trail Blazersavg 43¢ | $5.94 | $6.15 | +$0.21 | 57% 12905-9825 (22730) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Trail Blazersavg 47¢ | $2.82 | $2.67 | -$0.15 | 54% 2554-2186 (4740) |
Invested
$3,256
Value
$3.3K
PnL
+$18.46
Record
54%
16734-14039 (30773)
Invested
$1,970.14
Value
$1.9K
PnL
-$42.5
Record
—
Invested
$1,641.98
Value
$1.7K
PnL
+$50.95
Record
62%
4007-2448 (6455)
Invested
$70.37
Value
$71.66
PnL
+$1.29
Record
58%
27868-20503 (48371)
Both legs:
VeryLucky888Invested
$305.94
Value
$23.01
PnL
-$0.51
Record
58%
40375-29164 (69539)
Invested
$5.94
Value
$6.15
PnL
+$0.21
Record
57%
12905-9825 (22730)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$2.82
Value
$2.67
PnL
-$0.15
Record
54%
2554-2186 (4740)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
53.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.