Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Trail Blazers, while the market favors Lakers (56%). 2 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Spread: Trail Blazers (-1.5)
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Trail Blazers (40%) · Trail Blazers at 44¢ · $2K held · ends Oct 28
⚠️
Avoid
Trail Blazers
5
Trail Blazers 40%
$2.0K
$133.44
39.1¢ → 43.5¢
+11% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
AvoidTrail Blazers at 44%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)Underdog side (market favors Lakers 56%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
40% of non-arb traders are on Trail Blazers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 ReformedxCTR | Trail Blazersavg 39¢ | $1.1K | $1.2K | +$126.75 | 52% 776-722 (1498) |
BR BreakTheBank | Lakersavg 56¢ | $610.64 | $616.09 | +$5.45 | 43% 541-709 (1250) |
 RN1 | Lakersavg 56¢ | $140 | $140 | -$0 | 54% 55509-47585 (103094) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Lakersavg 56¢ | $32.32 | $33.2 | +$0.99 | 58% 27963-20593 (48556) |
NA NatoAlfistaCTR<$100 | Trail Blazersavg 44¢ | $21.56 | $21.56 | +$0.25 | 50% 3682-3663 (7345) |
ReformedxCTRInvested
$1,098.5
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$126.75
Record
52%
776-722 (1498)
Invested
$610.64
Value
$616.09
PnL
+$5.45
Record
43%
541-709 (1250)
RN1Invested
$140
Value
$140
PnL
-$0
Record
54%
55509-47585 (103094)
Invested
$32.32
Value
$33.2
PnL
+$0.99
Record
58%
27963-20593 (48556)
Invested
$21.56
Value
$21.56
PnL
+$0.25
Record
50%
3682-3663 (7345)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
43.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.