Spread: Trail Blazers (-14.5)
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Lakers (40%) · Lakers at 91¢ · $657 held · ends Oct 28
⚠️
Avoid
Lakers
5
Lakers 40%
$656.83
-$23.07
88¢ → 90.5¢
+3% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
AvoidLakers at 91%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
40% of non-arb traders are on Lakers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FO forecastication4 | Lakersavg 88¢ | $467.28 | $480.56 | +$13.28 | 49% 1109-1140 (2249) |
0X 0xC576775EF9167dDc38ee6a4E537545ab73d0b9d2-1789288093603CTR<$100 | Trail Blazersavg 11.7¢ | $100 | $81.3 | -$18.7 | 51% 22-21 (43) |
OX oxe78sh4w98CTR<$100 | Trail Blazersavg 12¢ | $80 | $63.33 | -$16.67 | 53% 298-263 (561) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Lakersavg 88.5¢ | $24.77 | $24.63 | +$0.28 | 58% 27868-20501 (48369) |
GG GGLPLCTR<$100 | Trail Blazersavg 12.8¢ | $7.02 | $7.02 | -$1.26 | 50% 662-652 (1314) |
Invested
$467.28
Value
$480.56
PnL
+$13.28
Record
49%
1109-1140 (2249)
Invested
$100
Value
$81.3
PnL
-$18.7
Record
51%
22-21 (43)
Invested
$80
Value
$63.33
PnL
-$16.67
Record
53%
298-263 (561)
Invested
$24.77
Value
$24.63
PnL
+$0.28
Record
58%
27868-20501 (48369)
Invested
$7.02
Value
$7.02
PnL
-$1.26
Record
50%
662-652 (1314)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
90.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.