Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Trail Blazers, while the market favors Lakers (79%). 3 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Spread: Trail Blazers (-10.5)

3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Trail Blazers (43%) · Trail Blazers at 22¢ · $678 held · ended Oct 28

Trail Blazers22¢Lakers78¢Ended Wed, Oct 28, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Trail Blazers

Consensus Traders

Trail Blazers 43%

Total Value

$678.3

Combined PnL

-$51.71

Smart Money Entry

21.9¢ → 21.5¢

-2% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidTrail Blazers at 22%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Trail Blazers

3 of 7 top traders (43%)Underdog side (market favors Lakers 79%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Trail Blazers22%

Lakers79%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Trail Blazers3 traders

Total Value$540.39

Total Shares2,702

Combined PnL-$50.85

Lakers4 traders

Total Value$137.9

Total Shares172

Combined PnL-$0.86

Trail Blazers — 43%Lakers — 57%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xC576775EF9167dDc38ee6a4E537545ab73d0b9d2-1789288093603CTR	Trail Blazersavg 21.5¢	$300	$279.44	-$20.56	51% 22-21 (43)
OX oxe78sh4w98CTR	Trail Blazersavg 22.4¢	$283.44	$253.62	-$29.81	53% 315-279 (594)
PU purplegatto<$100	Lakersavg 81¢	$98.82	$97.6	-$1.22	50% 5750-5854 (11604)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Lakersavg 79.3¢	$30.13	$30.4	+$0.27	58% 27963-20593 (48556)
GG GGLPLCTR<$100	Trail Blazersavg 21.3¢	$7.81	$7.33	-$0.47	50% 663-653 (1316)
FO Forecastication2<$100	Lakersavg 81¢	$5.67	$5.6	-$0.07	50% 6761-6761 (13522)
poshposh<$100	Lakersavg 77¢	$4.14	$4.3	+$0.16	60% 9216-6172 (15388)

0xC576775EF9167dDc38ee6a4E537545ab73d0b9d2-1789288093603CTR

Trail Blazers

Invested

$300

Value

$279.44

PnL

-$20.56

Record

51%

22-21 (43)

oxe78sh4w98CTR

Trail Blazers

Invested

$283.44

Value

$253.62

PnL

-$29.81

Record

53%

315-279 (594)

purplegatto<$100

Lakers

Invested

$98.82

Value

$97.6

PnL

-$1.22

Record

50%

5750-5854 (11604)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Lakers

Invested

$30.13

Value

$30.4

PnL

+$0.27

Record

58%

27963-20593 (48556)

GGLPLCTR<$100

Trail Blazers

Invested

$7.81

Value

$7.33

PnL

-$0.47

Record

50%

663-653 (1316)

Forecastication2<$100

Lakers

Invested

$5.67

Value

$5.6

PnL

-$0.07

Record

50%

6761-6761 (13522)

poshposh<$100

Lakers

Invested

$4.14

Value

$4.3

PnL

+$0.16

Record

60%

9216-6172 (15388)

Research grade

AvoidTrail Blazers at 22%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Trail Blazers

3 of 7 top traders (43%)Underdog side (market favors Lakers 79%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Trail Blazers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance23.4%

21.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$327.86

Max Loss

-$100.00

427.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.