Trail Blazers vs. Nuggets: O/U 231.5

7 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Under (58%) · Under at 52¢ · $23K held · ends Nov 3

Over49¢Under51¢Ends Tue, Nov 3, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 58%

Total Value

$22.8K

Combined PnL

$196.31

Smart Money Entry

50¢ → 51.5¢

+3% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 52%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

7 of 12 top traders (58%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over49%

Under52%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under7 traders

Total Value$14.8K

Total Shares28,784

Combined PnL+$349.26

Over5 traders

Total Value$8.0K

Total Shares16,380

Combined PnL-$152.95

Under — 58%Over — 42%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+18 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 71%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

58% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 71% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Over) and the top 1000 (11 on Under) disagree here.

whaleUnder 75% · 4

Aligned

sharpUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrUnder 55% · 11

Aligned

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Under 64% · 11

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazard	Underavg 50.4¢	$7.6K	$7.7K	+$164.3	54% 17515-14721 (32236)
ComingBackCTR	Overavg 49¢	$4.7K	$4.7K	-$48.24	61% 3999-2513 (6512)
FO Forecastication2	Underavg 49¢	$3.1K	$3.2K	+$94.44	50% 7248-7348 (14596)
0X 0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542CTR	Overavg 51¢	$3.1K	$3.0K	-$90	47% 2624-2924 (5548)
nigiri99	Underavg 49.6¢	$2.5K	$2.6K	+$94.69	46% 7288-8598 (15886)
HE Herdonia	Underavg 50.7¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	-$4.85	54% 3480-3014 (6494)
SU SunlineTickerCTR	Overavg 50¢	$355	$347.9	-$7.1	62% 4300-2636 (6936)
38 38791873984189<$100	Underavg 51¢	$75.31	$75.99	+$0.68	47% 13045-14637 (27682)
0xheavy888CTR<$100	Overavg 50¢	$10	$9.9	-$0.1	56% 7471-5987 (13458)
SE sentrio<$100	Underavg 51¢	$2.55	$2.58	+$0.03	50% 25013-24733 (49746)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Underavg 52¢	$2.6	$2.5	-$0.03	53% 7649-6917 (14566)
VeryLucky888CTR	Overavg 50¢	$375	$1.07	-$7.51	58% 43629-31734 (75363)

HomeRunHazard

Under

Invested

$7,552.8

Value

$7.7K

PnL

+$164.3

Record

54%

17515-14721 (32236)

ComingBackCTR

Over

Invested

$4,727.51

Value

$4.7K

PnL

-$48.24

Record

61%

3999-2513 (6512)

Forecastication2

Under

Invested

$3,085.04

Value

$3.2K

PnL

+$94.44

Record

50%

7248-7348 (14596)

0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542CTR

Over

Invested

$3,060

Value

$3.0K

PnL

-$90

Record

47%

2624-2924 (5548)

nigiri99

Under

Invested

$2,496.81

Value

$2.6K

PnL

+$94.69

Record

46%

7288-8598 (15886)

Herdonia

Under

Invested

$1,176.2

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$4.85

Record

54%

3480-3014 (6494)

SunlineTickerCTR

Over

Invested

$355

Value

$347.9

PnL

-$7.1

Record

62%

4300-2636 (6936)

38791873984189<$100

Under

Invested

$75.31

Value

$75.99

PnL

+$0.68

Record

47%

13045-14637 (27682)

0xheavy888CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$10

Value

$9.9

PnL

-$0.1

Record

56%

7471-5987 (13458)

sentrio<$100

Under

Invested

$2.55

Value

$2.58

PnL

+$0.03

Record

50%

25013-24733 (49746)

ameisgoat11<$100

Under

Invested

$2.6

Value

$2.5

PnL

-$0.03

Record

53%

7649-6917 (14566)

VeryLucky888CTR

Over

Invested

$375

Value

$1.07

PnL

-$7.51

Record

58%

43629-31734 (75363)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 52%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Under

7 of 12 top traders (58%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+18 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 71%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

58% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 71% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Over) and the top 1000 (11 on Under) disagree here.

whaleUnder 75% · 4

Aligned

sharpUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrUnder 55% · 11

Aligned

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Under 64% · 11

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance53.7%

51.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$86.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

186.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.