Trail Blazers vs. Nuggets: O/U 230.5

3 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Over (38%) · Over at 51¢ · $9K held · ends Nov 3

Over51¢Under49¢Ends Tue, Nov 3, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 38%

Total Value

$9.3K

Combined PnL

-$26.27

Smart Money Entry

49.6¢ → 50.5¢

+2% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 51%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

3 of 8 top traders (38%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over51%

Under50%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over3 traders

Total Value$4.7K

Total Shares9,455

Combined PnL+$33.38

Under5 traders

Total Value$4.6K

Total Shares9,222

Combined PnL-$59.66

Over — 38%Under — 62%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 100% · 2

Diverging

sharpUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrOver 50% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Under 63% · 8

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AP AppleTiiime	Overavg 49.7¢	$4.7K	$4.7K	+$32.44	— 7-6 (13)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Underavg 50.5¢	$2.8K	$2.7K	-$55.03	54% 17504-14709 (32213)
HI hi774cCTR	Underavg 50¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	+$0	51% 4852-4594 (9446)
HE HerdoniaCTR	Underavg 50.5¢	$469.83	$465.36	-$4.47	54% 3475-3012 (6487)
SE sentrioCTR	Underavg 50¢	$165.05	$165.05	+$0	50% 24998-24713 (49711)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Underavg 50.3¢	$24.21	$24.06	-$0.15	57% 17226-12892 (30118)
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989<$100	Overavg 48¢	$16.19	$16.86	+$0.84	53% 5746-5083 (10829)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Overavg 48¢	$2.4	$2.5	+$0.1	52% 7634-6911 (14545)

AppleTiiime

Over

Invested

$4,675.6

Value

$4.7K

PnL

+$32.44

Record

—

7-6 (13)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Under

Invested

$2,802.99

Value

$2.7K

PnL

-$55.03

Record

54%

17504-14709 (32213)

hi774cCTR

Under

Invested

$1,181

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$0

Record

51%

4852-4594 (9446)

HerdoniaCTR

Under

Invested

$469.83

Value

$465.36

PnL

-$4.47

Record

54%

3475-3012 (6487)

sentrioCTR

Under

Invested

$165.05

Value

$165.05

PnL

+$0

Record

50%

24998-24713 (49711)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$24.21

Value

$24.06

PnL

-$0.15

Record

57%

17226-12892 (30118)

0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989<$100

Over

Invested

$16.19

Value

$16.86

PnL

+$0.84

Record

53%

5746-5083 (10829)

ameisgoat11<$100

Over

Invested

$2.4

Value

$2.5

PnL

+$0.1

Record

52%

7634-6911 (14545)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 51%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Over

3 of 8 top traders (38%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 100% · 2

Diverging

sharpUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrOver 50% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Under 63% · 8

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance52.7%

50.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$89.58

Max Loss

-$100.00

189.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.