Trail Blazers vs. Nuggets
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Nuggets (75%) · Nuggets at 61¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 3
⚠️
Avoid
Nuggets
4
Nuggets 75%
$1.3K
$29.68
60¢ → 61¢
+2% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidNuggets at 61%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x4278F7E5CB5f2d68d204d7403270c79CB07e0E92-1762724768941 | Nuggetsavg 60¢ | $1.2K | $1.3K | +$30.74 | 59% 257-178 (435) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Trail Blazersavg 39.9¢ | $52.28 | $44.56 | -$1.06 | 56% 14488-11246 (25734) |
OD Oddstorm<$100 | Nuggetsavg 61¢ | $19.52 | $19.52 | +$0 | — |
AM ameisgoat11<$100 | Nuggetsavg 61¢ | $3.05 | $3.05 | +$0 | 52% 7592-6886 (14478) |
Invested
$1,229.61
Value
$1.3K
PnL
+$30.74
Record
59%
257-178 (435)
Invested
$52.28
Value
$44.56
PnL
-$1.06
Record
56%
14488-11246 (25734)
Invested
$19.52
Value
$19.52
PnL
+$0
Record
—
Invested
$3.05
Value
$3.05
PnL
+$0
Record
52%
7592-6886 (14478)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
61.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.