Suns vs. Thunder: O/U 224.5

5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Over (56%) · Over at 97¢ · $15K held · ended Oct 27

Over97¢Under3¢Ended Tue, Oct 27, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 56%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$15.4K

Combined PnL

$920.52

Smart Money Entry

51.8¢ → 97¢

+87% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 97%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

5 of 9 top traders (56%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over97%

Under3%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over5 traders

Total Value$4.4K

Total Shares6,778

Combined PnL+$919.35

Under4 traders

Total Value$3.4K

Total Shares7,220

Combined PnL+$1.17

Over — 56%Under — 44%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Overavg 52.4¢	$6.7K	$6.9K	+$138.14	54% 16556-13890 (30446)
└ Over leg	Overavg 52.4¢	$3.9K	$4.8K	+$899.68
└ Under leg	Underavg 48.4¢	$2.9K	$2.1K	-$761.55
TA takeormake	Overavg 51.7¢	$3.1K	$3.8K	+$761.87	54% 3614-3134 (6748)
GA gagarin59CTR	Underavg 46.4¢	$2.9K	$2.9K	+$38.49	53% 597-533 (1130)
FL Flaznorp	Overavg 52¢	$409.51	$571.04	+$161.53	—
JU justaluckydudeARB<$100	Underavg 46.5¢	$521.65	$540.76	+$19.11	54% 10277-8909 (19186)
└ Under leg	Underavg 46.5¢	$293.69	$296.96	+$3.27
└ Over leg	Overavg 49.6¢	$227.96	$243.8	+$15.84
hammyandcheeseCTR	Underavg 50¢	$500	$470	-$30	58% 341-251 (592)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100	Underavg 47.6¢	$173.56	$172.17	-$1.39	48% 413-442 (855)
└ Under leg	Underavg 47.6¢	$110.05	$108.66	-$1.39
└ Over leg	Overavg 53¢	$63.5	$63.5	-$0
GH ghorrock<$100	Overavg 67.5¢	$20.25	$15.9	-$4.35	57% 12546-9489 (22035)
AN Anon455CTR<$100	Underavg 52¢	$31.81	$13.83	-$2.51	56% 2435-1897 (4332)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Underavg 59¢	$15.34	$10.53	-$4.81	57% 27287-20178 (47465)
HRTrading<$100	Overavg 49.3¢	$7.07	$7.49	+$0.42	54% 2299-1927 (4226)
MI mishipolis<$100	Overavg 55¢	$3.19	$3.07	-$0.12	50% 4379-4294 (8673)

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Over

Invested

$6,739.54

Value

$6.9K

PnL

+$138.14

Record

54%

16556-13890 (30446)

Both legs:

Over$3,882.0852.4¢+$899.68

Under$2,857.4648.4¢-$761.55

takeormake

Over

Invested

$3,071.37

Value

$3.8K

PnL

+$761.87

Record

54%

3614-3134 (6748)

gagarin59CTR

Under

Invested

$2,860.17

Value

$2.9K

PnL

+$38.49

Record

53%

597-533 (1130)

Flaznorp

Over

Invested

$409.51

Value

$571.04

PnL

+$161.53

Record

—

justaluckydudeARB<$100

Under

Invested

$521.65

Value

$540.76

PnL

+$19.11

Record

54%

10277-8909 (19186)

Both legs:

Under$293.6946.5¢+$3.27

Over$227.9649.6¢+$15.84

hammyandcheeseCTR

Under

Invested

$500

Value

$470

PnL

-$30

Record

58%

341-251 (592)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100

Under

Invested

$173.56

Value

$172.17

PnL

-$1.39

Record

48%

413-442 (855)

Both legs:

Under$110.0547.6¢-$1.39

Over$63.553¢-$0

ghorrock<$100

Over

Invested

$20.25

Value

$15.9

PnL

-$4.35

Record

57%

12546-9489 (22035)

Anon455CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$31.81

Value

$13.83

PnL

-$2.51

Record

56%

2435-1897 (4332)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$15.34

Value

$10.53

PnL

-$4.81

Record

57%

27287-20178 (47465)

HRTrading<$100

Over

Invested

$7.07

Value

$7.49

PnL

+$0.42

Record

54%

2299-1927 (4226)

mishipolis<$100

Over

Invested

$3.19

Value

$3.07

PnL

-$0.12

Record

50%

4379-4294 (8673)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 97%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Over

5 of 9 top traders (56%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance98.1%

97.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1.94

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.