Spread: Thunder (-5.5)
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Thunder (60%) · Thunder at 77¢ · $1K held
⚠️
Avoid
Thunder
5
Thunder 60%
$1.2K
-$152.25
75.9¢ → 77¢
+1% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidThunder at 77%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.
- BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 99%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on Thunder. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Thunderavg 77¢ | $1.1K | $1.1K | +$77.82 | 51% 12449-11898 (24347) |
AN Anon455<$100 | Thunderavg 63¢ | $83.11 | $83.07 | +$30.71 | 56% 2440-1906 (4346) |
 RollAwayTheDew<$100 | Thunderavg 63¢ | $7.16 | $8.75 | +$0.8 | 52% 270-247 (517) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Sunsavg 28.6¢ | $4.71 | $2.47 | -$2.24 | 54% 2345-1973 (4318) |
TA takeormakeCTR | Sunsavg 23¢ | $1.1K | $0.57 | -$259.34 | 54% 3614-3134 (6748) |
Invested
$1,051.93
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$77.82
Record
51%
12449-11898 (24347)
Invested
$83.11
Value
$83.07
PnL
+$30.71
Record
56%
2440-1906 (4346)
RollAwayTheDew<$100Invested
$7.16
Value
$8.75
PnL
+$0.8
Record
52%
270-247 (517)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$4.71
Value
$2.47
PnL
-$2.24
Record
54%
2345-1973 (4318)
Invested
$1,130
Value
$0.57
PnL
-$259.34
Record
54%
3614-3134 (6748)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
77.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.