Suns vs. Warriors: O/U 228.5
2 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Under (67%) · Under at 52¢ · $258 held · ends Nov 3
⚠️
Avoid
Under
3
Under 67%
$258.18
-$2.52
52¢ → 52¢
+0% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
AvoidUnder at 52%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 3 top traders (67%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x4278F7E5CB5f2d68d204d7403270c79CB07e0E92-1762724768941 | Underavg 52¢ | $122.79 | $121.61 | -$1.18 | 59% 258-178 (436) |
DV dv-pmCTR | Overavg 49¢ | $107.8 | $106.7 | -$1.1 | 49% 3239-3325 (6564) |
 nigiri99<$100 | Underavg 51.9¢ | $30.11 | $29.87 | -$0.24 | 46% 7288-8598 (15886) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
52.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.