Suns vs. Warriors: O/U 227.5

5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Under (71%) · Under at 51¢ · $31K held · ends Nov 3

Over50¢Under50¢Ends Tue, Nov 3, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 71%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$31.2K

Combined PnL

-$111.79

Smart Money Entry

50¢ → 50.5¢

+1% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 51%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 7 top traders (71%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over50%

Under51%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under5 traders

Total Value$8.1K

Total Shares16,108

Combined PnL-$56.54

Over2 traders

Total Value$2.2K

Total Shares4,272

Combined PnL-$55.25

Under — 71%Over — 29%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-36 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Fresh

8h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 50% · 2

Aligned

sharpOver 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrUnder 57% · 7

Aligned

Top 1000Under 50% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Overavg 49.5¢	$19.7K	$19.8K	+$81.97	54% 17537-14740 (32277)
└ Over leg	Overavg 49.5¢	$10.0K	$10.0K	-$6.8
└ Under leg	Underavg 50¢	$9.7K	$9.8K	+$88.77
ComingBack	Underavg 50¢	$4.7K	$4.7K	-$47.27	61% 4000-2513 (6513)
nigiri99	Underavg 50¢	$2.0K	$2.0K	-$18.59	46% 8100-9429 (17529)
SE sentrioCTR	Overavg 50.3¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	-$39.27	50% 25032-24757 (49789)
HE HerdoniaARB<$100	Overavg 49.3¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	-$1.91	54% 3481-3016 (6497)
└ Over leg	Overavg 49.3¢	$578.05	$580.77	+$2.72
└ Under leg	Underavg 51¢	$521.04	$516.41	-$4.63
38 38791873984189CTR	Overavg 50.1¢	$711.72	$695.73	-$15.99	47% 13202-14757 (27959)
LU LuckyLoo	Underavg 51¢	$672.69	$666.1	-$6.6	49% 13523-14231 (27754)
FO Forecastication2	Underavg 49¢	$424.82	$433.49	+$8.67	50% 7264-7360 (14624)
SU SunlineTicker	Underavg 48¢	$232	$241.67	+$7.25	62% 4301-2639 (6940)
GH ghorrockARB<$100	Underavg 49.4¢	$65.35	$66.38	+$1.03	57% 17433-13012 (30445)
└ Under leg	Underavg 49.4¢	$44.34	$45.34	+$1
└ Over leg	Overavg 49.4¢	$21.01	$21.04	+$0.03

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Over

Invested

$19,693.88

Value

$19.8K

PnL

+$81.97

Record

54%

17537-14740 (32277)

Both legs:

Over$9,999.2949.5¢-$6.8

Under$9,694.5850¢+$88.77

ComingBack

Under

Invested

$4,727.5

Value

$4.7K

PnL

-$47.27

Record

61%

4000-2513 (6513)

nigiri99

Under

Invested

$1,990.7

Value

$2.0K

PnL

-$18.59

Record

46%

8100-9429 (17529)

sentrioCTR

Over

Invested

$1,506.65

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$39.27

Record

50%

25032-24757 (49789)

HerdoniaARB<$100

Over

Invested

$1,099.09

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$1.91

Record

54%

3481-3016 (6497)

Both legs:

Over$578.0549.3¢+$2.72

Under$521.0451¢-$4.63

38791873984189CTR

Over

Invested

$711.72

Value

$695.73

PnL

-$15.99

Record

47%

13202-14757 (27959)

LuckyLoo

Under

Invested

$672.69

Value

$666.1

PnL

-$6.6

Record

49%

13523-14231 (27754)

Forecastication2

Under

Invested

$424.82

Value

$433.49

PnL

+$8.67

Record

50%

7264-7360 (14624)

SunlineTicker

Under

Invested

$232

Value

$241.67

PnL

+$7.25

Record

62%

4301-2639 (6940)

ghorrockARB<$100

Under

Invested

$65.35

Value

$66.38

PnL

+$1.03

Record

57%

17433-13012 (30445)

Both legs:

Under$44.3449.4¢+$1

Over$21.0149.4¢+$0.03

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 51%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 7 top traders (71%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-36 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Fresh

8h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 50% · 2

Aligned

sharpOver 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrUnder 57% · 7

Aligned

Top 1000Under 50% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance52.7%

50.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$89.58

Max Loss

-$100.00

189.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.