Spread: Suns (-1.5)
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Warriors (75%) · Warriors at 62¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 3
⚠️
Avoid
Warriors
4
Warriors 75%
2 arb excluded
$2.3K
$3.21
61.3¢ → 61.5¢
+0% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidWarriors at 62%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 78%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
75% of non-arb traders are on Warriors. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 78% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FO forecastication4 | Warriorsavg 61¢ | $823.5 | $823.5 | +$6.75 | 50% 1244-1261 (2505) |
65 6512395314597884 | Warriorsavg 61.9¢ | $618.54 | $610 | -$3.54 | 49% 2929-3048 (5977) |
FE ferdinand2 | Warriorsavg 61¢ | $410.1 | $410.1 | +$0 | 51% 1005-965 (1970) |
 nigiri99ARB<$100 | Sunsavg 39¢ | $726 | $305.27 | -$3.63 | 46% 7288-8597 (15885) |
| └ Suns leg | Sunsavg 39¢ | $239.4 | $236.39 | -$3.07 | |
| └ Warriors leg | Warriorsavg 62¢ | $69.44 | $68.88 | -$0.56 | |
38 38791873984189ARB<$100 | Warriorsavg 61.8¢ | $585.2 | $102.55 | -$8.07 | 47% 13029-14600 (27629) |
| └ Warriors leg | Warriorsavg 61.8¢ | $61.92 | $61.13 | -$6.98 | |
| └ Suns leg | Sunsavg 39¢ | $42.51 | $41.42 | -$1.09 | |
FO Forecastication2CTR<$100 | Sunsavg 38¢ | $2.66 | $2.66 | +$0 | 50% 7248-7347 (14595) |
Invested
$823.5
Value
$823.5
PnL
+$6.75
Record
50%
1244-1261 (2505)
Invested
$618.54
Value
$610
PnL
-$3.54
Record
49%
2929-3048 (5977)
Invested
$410.1
Value
$410.1
PnL
+$0
Record
51%
1005-965 (1970)
nigiri99ARB<$100Invested
$726
Value
$305.27
PnL
-$3.63
Record
46%
7288-8597 (15885)
Both legs:
Invested
$585.2
Value
$102.55
PnL
-$8.07
Record
47%
13029-14600 (27629)
Both legs:
Invested
$2.66
Value
$2.66
PnL
+$0
Record
50%
7248-7347 (14595)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
61.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.