Suns vs. Warriors
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Warriors (75%) · Warriors at 60¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 3
⚠️
Avoid
Warriors
4
Warriors 75%
$1.3K
-$25.92
61.2¢ → 60¢
-2% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidWarriors at 60%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
QW QWUERHAIUKSJNFSNCF | Warriorsavg 60.5¢ | $706.99 | $701.65 | -$5.34 | 54% 402-345 (747) |
HO HomeRunHazard | Warriorsavg 62¢ | $604 | $584.51 | -$19.48 | 54% 17416-14612 (32028) |
UP UpTheBlues<$100 | Warriorsavg 62¢ | $34.13 | $33.03 | -$1.1 | 58% 47746-33933 (81679) |
HE HerdoniaCTR<$100 | Sunsavg 38¢ | $27.93 | $27.93 | +$0 | 54% 3443-2988 (6431) |
Invested
$706.99
Value
$701.65
PnL
-$5.34
Record
54%
402-345 (747)
Invested
$604
Value
$584.51
PnL
-$19.48
Record
54%
17416-14612 (32028)
Invested
$34.13
Value
$33.03
PnL
-$1.1
Record
58%
47746-33933 (81679)
Invested
$27.93
Value
$27.93
PnL
+$0
Record
54%
3443-2988 (6431)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
60.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.