76ers vs. Pacers: O/U 241.5

3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Under (60%) · Under at 80¢ · $1K held · ended Oct 28

Over21¢Under79¢Ended Wed, Oct 28, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 60%

Total Value

$1.3K

Combined PnL

-$18.22

Smart Money Entry

64.3¢ → 79.5¢

+24% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 80%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over21%

Under80%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under3 traders

Total Value$947.34

Total Shares1,513

Combined PnL-$30.48

Over2 traders

Total Value$312.99

Total Shares813

Combined PnL+$12.25

Under — 60%Over — 40%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BU BullishBarb	Underavg 64.2¢	$945.49	$907.04	-$38.45	43% 2996-4016 (7012)
TA takeormakeCTR	Overavg 37¢	$300.06	$312.22	+$12.16	54% 3824-3297 (7121)
HRTrading<$100	Underavg 68.2¢	$31.38	$39.33	+$7.95	53% 3186-2848 (6034)
GH ghorrock<$100	Underavg 60¢	$0.95	$0.97	+$0.02	57% 13208-10063 (23271)
FO Forecastication2CTR<$100	Overavg 34¢	$0.68	$0.77	+$0.09	50% 6816-6831 (13647)

BullishBarb

Under

Invested

$945.49

Value

$907.04

PnL

-$38.45

Record

43%

2996-4016 (7012)

takeormakeCTR

Over

Invested

$300.06

Value

$312.22

PnL

+$12.16

Record

54%

3824-3297 (7121)

HRTrading<$100

Under

Invested

$31.38

Value

$39.33

PnL

+$7.95

Record

53%

3186-2848 (6034)

ghorrock<$100

Under

Invested

$0.95

Value

$0.97

PnL

+$0.02

Record

57%

13208-10063 (23271)

Forecastication2CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$0.68

Value

$0.77

PnL

+$0.09

Record

50%

6816-6831 (13647)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 80%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance81.3%

79.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$23.02

Max Loss

-$100.00

123.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.