Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (52%). 5 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
76ers vs. Pacers: O/U 237.5
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Under (100%) · Under at 49¢ · $1K held · ends Oct 28
⚠️
Avoid
Under
5
Under 100%
$1.5K
$64.1
47.8¢ → 48.5¢
+1% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
AvoidUnder at 49%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Over 52%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HI hi774cCTR | Underavg 47.8¢ | $1.2K | $1.3K | +$57.57 | 52% 4642-4349 (8991) |
FO forecastication4CTR<$100 | Underavg 49¢ | $76.44 | $78 | +$1.56 | 49% 1112-1141 (2253) |
 poshposhCTR<$100 | Underavg 48¢ | $48.41 | $50.43 | +$2.02 | 60% 9181-6134 (15315) |
BO BoomLaLaCTR<$100 | Underavg 47¢ | $47 | $50 | +$3 | 53% 11428-9958 (21386) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Underavg 52¢ | $1.3 | $1.25 | -$0.05 | 54% 2744-2368 (5112) |
Invested
$1,224.43
Value
$1.3K
PnL
+$57.57
Record
52%
4642-4349 (8991)
Invested
$76.44
Value
$78
PnL
+$1.56
Record
49%
1112-1141 (2253)
poshposhCTR<$100Invested
$48.41
Value
$50.43
PnL
+$2.02
Record
60%
9181-6134 (15315)
Invested
$47
Value
$50
PnL
+$3
Record
53%
11428-9958 (21386)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$1.3
Value
$1.25
PnL
-$0.05
Record
54%
2744-2368 (5112)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
48.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.