Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (51%). 3 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
76ers vs. Pacers: O/U 235.5
3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Under (50%) · Under at 50¢ · $3K held · ends Oct 28
⚠️
Avoid
Under
6
Under 50%
$3.1K
-$18.28
48.6¢ → 49.5¢
+2% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidUnder at 50%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 6 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Over 51%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazardCTR | Underavg 48.5¢ | $1.9K | $1.9K | -$39.18 | 54% 16864-14141 (31005) |
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989 | Overavg 50¢ | $500 | $525 | +$25 | 53% 5499-4842 (10341) |
 RN1 | Overavg 50.6¢ | $390 | $388.85 | -$1.15 | 54% 55711-47797 (103508) |
BU BullishBarbCTR | Underavg 50¢ | $248.88 | $246.39 | -$2.49 | 38% 848-1408 (2256) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Overavg 53.3¢ | $37.14 | $36.93 | -$0.22 | 58% 28121-20725 (48846) |
FO Forecastication2CTR<$100 | Underavg 48¢ | $23.52 | $23.28 | -$0.25 | 50% 6813-6826 (13639) |
Invested
$1,922.64
Value
$1.9K
PnL
-$39.18
Record
54%
16864-14141 (31005)
Invested
$500
Value
$525
PnL
+$25
Record
53%
5499-4842 (10341)
RN1Invested
$390
Value
$388.85
PnL
-$1.15
Record
54%
55711-47797 (103508)
Invested
$248.88
Value
$246.39
PnL
-$2.49
Record
38%
848-1408 (2256)
Invested
$37.14
Value
$36.93
PnL
-$0.22
Record
58%
28121-20725 (48846)
Invested
$23.52
Value
$23.28
PnL
-$0.25
Record
50%
6813-6826 (13639)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
49.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.