Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (51%). 4 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

76ers vs. Pacers: O/U 233.5

4 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Under (44%) · Under at 50¢ · $4K held · ends Oct 28

Over51¢Under49¢Ends Wed, Oct 28, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 44%

Total Value

$3.5K

Combined PnL

$98.29

Smart Money Entry

47.1¢ → 49.5¢

+5% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 50%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 9 top traders (44%)Underdog side (market favors Over 51%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over51%

Under50%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under4 traders

Total Value$2.1K

Total Shares4,350

Combined PnL+$101.47

Over5 traders

Total Value$1.4K

Total Shares2,718

Combined PnL-$3.19

Under — 44%Over — 56%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MO mooseborzoiiCTR	Underavg 49¢	$992.67	$1.0K	+$10.13	50% 1138-1132 (2270)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Underavg 44.1¢	$641.71	$720.89	+$79.18	54% 16875-14147 (31022)
0X 0xC576775EF9167dDc38ee6a4E537545ab73d0b9d2-1789288093603	Overavg 51¢	$500	$495.1	-$4.9	49% 28-29 (57)
OX oxe78sh4w98	Overavg 51¢	$490.38	$485.57	-$4.81	53% 345-311 (656)
0X 0x84e01e855165C5d56DE153c96DCC3B9bCe727F3D-1782704499041	Overavg 50¢	$351.64	$358.67	+$7.03	58% 198-142 (340)
BU BullishBarbCTR	Underavg 47¢	$321.48	$335.48	+$14	38% 848-1408 (2256)
FO Forecastication2CTR<$100	Underavg 50¢	$91.5	$89.67	-$1.83	50% 6813-6827 (13640)
GG GGLPL<$100	Overavg 51¢	$32.05	$31.73	-$0.31	50% 670-662 (1332)
HRTrading<$100	Overavg 52¢	$5.07	$4.97	-$0.2	53% 3098-2756 (5854)

mooseborzoiiCTR

Under

Invested

$992.67

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$10.13

Record

50%

1138-1132 (2270)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Under

Invested

$641.71

Value

$720.89

PnL

+$79.18

Record

54%

16875-14147 (31022)

0xC576775EF9167dDc38ee6a4E537545ab73d0b9d2-1789288093603

Over

Invested

$500

Value

$495.1

PnL

-$4.9

Record

49%

28-29 (57)

oxe78sh4w98

Over

Invested

$490.38

Value

$485.57

PnL

-$4.81

Record

53%

345-311 (656)

0x84e01e855165C5d56DE153c96DCC3B9bCe727F3D-1782704499041

Over

Invested

$351.64

Value

$358.67

PnL

+$7.03

Record

58%

198-142 (340)

BullishBarbCTR

Under

Invested

$321.48

Value

$335.48

PnL

+$14

Record

38%

848-1408 (2256)

Forecastication2CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$91.5

Value

$89.67

PnL

-$1.83

Record

50%

6813-6827 (13640)

GGLPL<$100

Over

Invested

$32.05

Value

$31.73

PnL

-$0.31

Record

50%

670-662 (1332)

HRTrading<$100

Over

Invested

$5.07

Value

$4.97

PnL

-$0.2

Record

53%

3098-2756 (5854)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 50%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 9 top traders (44%)Underdog side (market favors Over 51%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance51.7%

49.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$93.24

Max Loss

-$100.00

193.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.