76ers vs. Pacers: O/U 231.5
3 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Over (100%) · Over at 56¢ · $1K held · ends Oct 28
⚠️
Avoid
Over
3
Over 100%
$1.0K
-$8.85
56¢ → 56¢
+0% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidOver at 56%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 3 top traders (100%)1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xC576775EF9167dDc38ee6a4E537545ab73d0b9d2-1789288093603 | Overavg 56¢ | $500 | $500 | -$4.46 | 49% 28-29 (57) |
OX oxe78sh4w98 | Overavg 56¢ | $491.23 | $491.23 | -$4.39 | 53% 345-311 (656) |
GG GGLPL<$100 | Overavg 56¢ | $32.05 | $32.05 | -$0 | 50% 670-662 (1332) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
56.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.