76ers vs. Pacers: O/U 229.5
5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Under (71%) · Under at 80¢ · $7K held · ended Oct 28
⚠️
Avoid
Under
7
Under 71%
$7.1K
$313.63
51.6¢ → 80¢
+55% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
AvoidUnder at 80%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazard | Underavg 52¢ | $3.1K | $3.6K | +$541.27 | 54% 16884-14152 (31036) |
 NooseracCTR | Overavg 47¢ | $1.2K | $1.2K | -$71.89 | 52% 5722-5285 (11007) |
AN Anon455 | Underavg 52.2¢ | $784.05 | $877.89 | +$93.84 | 56% 2651-2105 (4756) |
BU BullishBarb | Underavg 48.8¢ | $483.73 | $802.63 | +$318.9 | 43% 2996-4016 (7012) |
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh | Underavg 51.7¢ | $254.66 | $334.66 | +$79.99 | 49% 559-583 (1142) |
TA takeormakeCTR | Overavg 49.3¢ | $975.3 | $326.7 | -$648.6 | 54% 3824-3298 (7122) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Underavg 62¢ | $1.24 | $1.36 | +$0.12 | 53% 3243-2909 (6152) |
Invested
$3,080.17
Value
$3.6K
PnL
+$541.27
Record
54%
16884-14152 (31036)
NooseracCTRInvested
$1,231.59
Value
$1.2K
PnL
-$71.89
Record
52%
5722-5285 (11007)
Invested
$784.05
Value
$877.89
PnL
+$93.84
Record
56%
2651-2105 (4756)
Invested
$483.73
Value
$802.63
PnL
+$318.9
Record
43%
2996-4016 (7012)
Invested
$254.66
Value
$334.66
PnL
+$79.99
Record
49%
559-583 (1142)
Invested
$975.3
Value
$326.7
PnL
-$648.6
Record
54%
3824-3298 (7122)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$1.24
Value
$1.36
PnL
+$0.12
Record
53%
3243-2909 (6152)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
80.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.