76ers vs. Pacers: O/U 227.5

4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Under (67%) · Under at 75¢ · $15K held · ended Oct 28

Over25¢Under75¢Ended Wed, Oct 28, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 67%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$15.3K

Combined PnL

$1.0K

Smart Money Entry

49.4¢ → 75¢

+52% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 75%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over25%

Under75%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under4 traders

Total Value$7.3K

Total Shares11,598

Combined PnL+$1.6K

Over2 traders

Total Value$343.13

Total Shares1,714

Combined PnL-$553.64

Under — 67%Over — 33%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TI timezonewarrior	Underavg 50¢	$5.0K	$6.1K	+$1.1K	44% 102-130 (232)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100	Overavg 50¢	$6.8K	$5.8K	$-1.0K	49% 559-583 (1142)
└ Over leg	Overavg 50¢	$5.8K	$4.5K	$-1.3K
└ Under leg	Underavg 48.7¢	$1.0K	$1.3K	+$263.63
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Underavg 45.8¢	$1.6K	$1.9K	+$232.53	54% 16884-14152 (31036)
└ Under leg	Underavg 45.8¢	$1.0K	$1.4K	+$336.33
└ Over leg	Overavg 47¢	$608.1	$504.31	-$103.8
BU BullishBarb	Underavg 45¢	$668.78	$1.2K	+$483.07	43% 2996-4016 (7012)
TA takeormakeCTR	Overavg 52.4¢	$832	$293.6	-$538.4	54% 3824-3298 (7122)
AN Anon455<$100	Underavg 59¢	$63.72	$65.88	+$2.16	56% 2651-2105 (4756)
hammyandcheeseCTR<$100	Overavg 51¢	$64.77	$49.53	-$15.24	57% 360-276 (636)
HRTrading<$100	Underavg 52¢	$2.98	$4.04	+$1.06	53% 3243-2909 (6152)

timezonewarrior

Under

Invested

$5,000

Value

$6.1K

PnL

+$1.1K

Record

44%

102-130 (232)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100

Over

Invested

$6,822.64

Value

$5.8K

PnL

$-1.0K

Record

49%

559-583 (1142)

Both legs:

Over$5,775.5450¢$-1.3K

Under$1,047.148.7¢+$263.63

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Under

Invested

$1,622.97

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$232.53

Record

54%

16884-14152 (31036)

Both legs:

Under$1,014.8745.8¢+$336.33

Over$608.147¢-$103.8

BullishBarb

Under

Invested

$668.78

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$483.07

Record

43%

2996-4016 (7012)

takeormakeCTR

Over

Invested

$832

Value

$293.6

PnL

-$538.4

Record

54%

3824-3298 (7122)

Anon455<$100

Under

Invested

$63.72

Value

$65.88

PnL

+$2.16

Record

56%

2651-2105 (4756)

hammyandcheeseCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$64.77

Value

$49.53

PnL

-$15.24

Record

57%

360-276 (636)

HRTrading<$100

Under

Invested

$2.98

Value

$4.04

PnL

+$1.06

Record

53%

3243-2909 (6152)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 75%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance76.9%

75.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$30.02

Max Loss

-$100.00

130.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.