Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (60%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
76ers vs. Pacers: O/U 223.5
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Over (60%) · $3K held · ended Oct 28
🔄
Contrarian
Over
5
Over 60%
2 arb excluded
$3.0K
-$699.31
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Under 60%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 89%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TA takeormake | Overavg 56.9¢ | $1.3K | $920.08 | -$372.81 | 54% 3824-3298 (7122) |
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100 | Overavg 54¢ | $592.56 | $624.03 | +$53.76 | 49% 559-583 (1142) |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 48.7¢ | $291.66 | $323.13 | +$31.47 | |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 54¢ | $300.9 | $300.9 | +$22.29 | |
HO HomeRunHazard | Overavg 53¢ | $725.69 | $513.55 | -$212.14 | 54% 16884-14152 (31036) |
AN Anon455 | Overavg 39.5¢ | $523.86 | $477.01 | -$46.85 | 56% 2651-2105 (4756) |
BU BullishBarb | Underavg 43.7¢ | $314.7 | $241.32 | -$73.38 | 43% 2996-4016 (7012) |
JU justaluckydudeARB<$100 | Overavg 52.5¢ | $193.63 | $154.66 | -$38.97 | 54% 10476-9103 (19579) |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 43.4¢ | $95.91 | $83.98 | -$11.93 | |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 52.5¢ | $97.72 | $70.68 | -$27.04 | |
 HRTrading<$100 | Underavg 38.1¢ | $19.26 | $25.12 | +$5.86 | 53% 3243-2909 (6152) |
Invested
$1,292.89
Value
$920.08
PnL
-$372.81
Record
54%
3824-3298 (7122)
Invested
$592.56
Value
$624.03
PnL
+$53.76
Record
49%
559-583 (1142)
Both legs:
Invested
$725.69
Value
$513.55
PnL
-$212.14
Record
54%
16884-14152 (31036)
Invested
$523.86
Value
$477.01
PnL
-$46.85
Record
56%
2651-2105 (4756)
Invested
$314.7
Value
$241.32
PnL
-$73.38
Record
43%
2996-4016 (7012)
Invested
$193.63
Value
$154.66
PnL
-$38.97
Record
54%
10476-9103 (19579)
Both legs:
HRTrading<$100Invested
$19.26
Value
$25.12
PnL
+$5.86
Record
53%
3243-2909 (6152)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
40.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.