Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (53%). 3 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
76ers vs. Pacers: O/U 221.5
3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Over (50%) · Over at 48¢ · $5K held · ended Oct 28
⚠️
Avoid
Over
6
Over 50%
1 arb excluded
$4.9K
-$244.68
53.6¢ → 47.5¢
-11% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidOver at 48%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 6 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Under 53%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TA takeormakeCTR | Overavg 53¢ | $2.3K | $2.1K | -$240.54 | 54% 3824-3298 (7122) |
AN Anon455ARB<$100 | Overavg 45.5¢ | $1.6K | $1.9K | +$223.39 | 56% 2651-2105 (4756) |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 45.5¢ | $910 | $950 | +$40 | |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 41.9¢ | $724.46 | $907.85 | +$183.39 | |
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh | Underavg 46.3¢ | $521.62 | $490.51 | -$31.11 | 49% 559-583 (1142) |
HO HomeRunHazardCTR | Overavg 56.3¢ | $366.48 | $367.58 | +$1.09 | 54% 16884-14152 (31036) |
BU BullishBarb<$100 | Underavg 37.4¢ | $47.52 | $76.84 | +$29.31 | 43% 2996-4016 (7012) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Underavg 45¢ | $25.89 | $24.55 | -$1.34 | 53% 3243-2909 (6152) |
FO Forecastication2CTR<$100 | Overavg 81¢ | $25.81 | $23.71 | -$2.1 | 50% 6821-6834 (13655) |
Invested
$2,326.56
Value
$2.1K
PnL
-$240.54
Record
54%
3824-3298 (7122)
Invested
$1,634.46
Value
$1.9K
PnL
+$223.39
Record
56%
2651-2105 (4756)
Both legs:
Invested
$521.62
Value
$490.51
PnL
-$31.11
Record
49%
559-583 (1142)
Invested
$366.48
Value
$367.58
PnL
+$1.09
Record
54%
16884-14152 (31036)
Invested
$47.52
Value
$76.84
PnL
+$29.31
Record
43%
2996-4016 (7012)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$25.89
Value
$24.55
PnL
-$1.34
Record
53%
3243-2909 (6152)
Invested
$25.81
Value
$23.71
PnL
-$2.1
Record
50%
6821-6834 (13655)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
47.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.