Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold 76ers, while the market favors Pacers (55%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Spread: Pacers (-6.5)

3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold 76ers (60%) · 76ers at 46¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 28

Pacers55¢76ers45¢Ended Wed, Oct 28, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

76ers

Consensus Traders

76ers 60%

Total Value

$1.6K

Combined PnL

-$27.05

Smart Money Entry

77.3¢ → 45.5¢

-41% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

Avoid76ers at 46%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

76ers

3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Pacers 55%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Pacers55%

76ers46%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

76ers3 traders

Total Value$1.3K

Total Shares1,483

Combined PnL+$67.29

Pacers2 traders

Total Value$316.08

Total Shares1,981

Combined PnL-$94.34

76ers — 60%Pacers — 40%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AN Anon455CTR	76ersavg 84¢	$894.87	$862.33	-$32.54	56% 2651-2105 (4756)
TA takeormakeCTR	76ersavg 56.5¢	$204.41	$304.24	+$99.83	54% 3824-3298 (7122)
NE neymar1	Pacersavg 16¢	$265.98	$265.98	+$0	30% 322-761 (1083)
FO Forecastication2CTR	76ersavg 84¢	$101.64	$101.64	+$0	50% 6821-6834 (13655)
JU justaluckydude	Pacersavg 46¢	$144.44	$50.1	-$94.34	54% 10476-9103 (19579)

Anon455CTR

76ers

Invested

$894.87

Value

$862.33

PnL

-$32.54

Record

56%

2651-2105 (4756)

takeormakeCTR

76ers

Invested

$204.41

Value

$304.24

PnL

+$99.83

Record

54%

3824-3298 (7122)

neymar1

Pacers

Invested

$265.98

Value

$265.98

PnL

+$0

Record

30%

322-761 (1083)

Forecastication2CTR

76ers

Invested

$101.64

Value

$101.64

PnL

+$0

Record

50%

6821-6834 (13655)

justaluckydude

Pacers

Invested

$144.44

Value

$50.1

PnL

-$94.34

Record

54%

10476-9103 (19579)

Research grade

Avoid76ers at 46%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

76ers

3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Pacers 55%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that 76ers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance47.7%

45.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$109.45

Max Loss

-$100.00

209.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.