Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Pacers, while the market favors 76ers (87%). 4 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Spread: Pacers (-3.5)
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Pacers (67%) · Pacers at 13¢ · $621 held · ended Oct 28
⚠️
Avoid
Pacers
6
Pacers 67%
$620.88
$36.75
22.4¢ → 13¢
-42% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidPacers at 13%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors 76ers 87%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HI hi774cCTR | Pacersavg 23¢ | $156.85 | $177.31 | +$20.46 | 52% 4657-4370 (9027) |
 RN1 | 76ersavg 77¢ | $160.46 | $157.34 | -$3.13 | 54% 55806-47900 (103706) |
DO DolphinBallerCTR | Pacersavg 22¢ | $141.88 | $148.33 | +$6.45 | 49% 85-90 (175) |
BO BoomLaLaCTR<$100 | Pacersavg 22¢ | $60.65 | $71.68 | +$11.03 | 53% 11468-9983 (21451) |
 HRTrading<$100 | 76ersavg 77.5¢ | $58.93 | $59.93 | +$1 | 53% 3186-2848 (6034) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Pacersavg 22.4¢ | $9.45 | $6.31 | +$0.95 | 57% 13208-10063 (23271) |
Invested
$156.85
Value
$177.31
PnL
+$20.46
Record
52%
4657-4370 (9027)
RN1Invested
$160.46
Value
$157.34
PnL
-$3.13
Record
54%
55806-47900 (103706)
Invested
$141.88
Value
$148.33
PnL
+$6.45
Record
49%
85-90 (175)
Invested
$60.65
Value
$71.68
PnL
+$11.03
Record
53%
11468-9983 (21451)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$58.93
Value
$59.93
PnL
+$1
Record
53%
3186-2848 (6034)
Invested
$9.45
Value
$6.31
PnL
+$0.95
Record
57%
13208-10063 (23271)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
13.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.